Tour de France 2009 - Stage 2

Stage 2 - Monaco Brignoles 187 km

Stage 2 is has an interesting profile which might make for an unpredictable stage. The riders start on a climb, the first 8.5km is a Cat 3 climb at 4.3%. KOM points are on from the beginning and there will no doubt be a rapid race for points. From there the race decends into nice where the first sprintn of the the tour wil be contested. The road follows the ocean before heading inland and kicking up for the Côte de Roquefort-les-Pins - a4.3 km climb to 4 %, cat 3. from there a succession of rolling hills with two more cat 4 climbs and sprints in Fayence and Lorgues.

This race should be keenly contested, breakaways have a chance to succeed with the rolling profile making chasing more difficult in the first half so a well orchestrated move could see a strong rider stealing the win by attacking the breakaway as we have seen in past stages like this. Being early in the race those in a breakaway could easily find themselves in Yellow, Green or Polka Dots tomorrow so there will no doubt be a strong French flavour to the breaks, but if they can stay away good luck, but everyone wants to win so Columbia and Quickstep will be chasing very hard to make it a bunch sprint and put their main men in Green.

Should be tactical, fast and a good finish eitherway, bunch or breakaways fighting it out.

No betting on this stage, Cavendish is $2.00 and with the prospect of a breakaway i will save the $ i have set aside for him for later stages that will deninitely be bunch finishes.

Crushing Cancellara - De Ja Vous ?

In reality we already knew that Fabian Cancellara was the best Time Triallist in the world, however in stage 1 of the Tour de France he laid any argument to the contrary to rest with an absolute slaughter of the Monaco Course - and his opposition. The two time world TT champ and Beijing Olympic gold medalist unleashed the beast and the huge Swiss finished 18 seconds ahead of second placed Alberto Contador in a time of 19.32 for the 15.5km course. This is the 3rd time Cancellara has taken the opening stage of a Tour (2004/07) and his fourth stage overall.

Continuing his early season TT form, Contador rode a brilliant race, he was fastest through the first half of the course (fastest to the top of the climb means he wears polka dots tomorrow) and was one of 4 Astana men in the top 10. They are going to be dominant. Aussie Cadel Evans was 5th and Lance Armstong showed he has not lost it, he was 10th, just 40 seconds behind Cancellara and 22 seconds off Contador. I thought Denis Menchov would have been disapointed, he was passed by Cancellara and was 1 min 31 behind, he rode much better TT races in the Giro and should have gone better, same can be said for Mick Rogers who as a 3 time world TT champ and one who is usually only 5-10 seconds slower than Cancellara should have been closer. I was super impressed again with Kreuziger, he was 9th. The usual suspects in Leipheimer, Kloden & Wiggins were there with young Martin riding well and Nibali showing he will be giving his team mate a bit of opposition for the lead rider of Liquigas.

But taking nothing away from the big man, Fabian was awesome - again.


Results
1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 19:32
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana +00:18
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 00:19
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 00:22
5 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 00:23
6 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 00:30
7 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 00:32
8 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - HTC 00:33
9 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 00:37
10 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 00:40

others of note
18 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 01:00
21 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 01:06
27 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia - HTC 01:13
53 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 01:31
67 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 01:36

Tour de France 2009 - Stage 1

Here we are the Grand Depart!

Monaco, playground of the rich and famous, host of a F1 race, the second smallest country in the world and apparently about 16 Euros for a beer. Prince Albert has spent over $1 million to get the race to begin here and what we are offered is a fantastic course. Shorter than a prologue (for some reason the first stage has to be shorter than 8km to be classified this way) and not the easiest of Time Trial courses the 2009 Tour de France is going to be on from the start.



The length and profile of the stage mean that it is demanding. Starting by the sea the first half of the stage is uphill to the top of the Cote de Beausoleil, then back down into Monaco from France thorough the streets using parts of the F1 course. There are sections of the climb between six and eight percent which will test the riders and technical corners with a number of hairpins. The last 3km is flat with the famous F1 tunnel marking the start of the final kilometer.



So it's a course for strong riders, not necessarily TT specialists though. Cancellara, Rogers & Grabsch have won all the world TT championships from 2003-2008. I think the Garmin team might have this stage as a special assignment for a rider though, just as Française des Jeux did in 2003 when Brad McGees sole aim for the tour was to win the first stage - he trained for months for nothing else. Garmin - Slipstream have Wiggins, Zabriskie, Vande Vaelde and Millar who are all very good TT exponents. Their prices with TAB sportsbet are $13,$41,$67,$67 - value!
From the main riders Contador, Evans, Armstrong, Leipheimer and Menchov are the men most likely. The big guns are going to have to go all out here, with a lack of TT kilometers in the 2009 edition it negates the advantage that the really good TT's have over the others so they have to make it all count.

Too tough to pick a winner of a stage like this however there is massive value in looking outside Cancellara (who is the Best TT rider in the world) - he and Contador who are the only riders under $10. Both have awesome TT form this year and are the ones to beat, but it may well happen, in fact im betting that one at odds can get into the top 3.


Stage 1 Betting.

The bets i am looking at are all each way (win / top 3)
Quoted odds from Betfair at 4.15pm

Leipheimer $36 /$8.00
Zabriskie $80 /$17.50

As for every stage on the tour we are going with $10 bets, todays outlay is $40.

2009 Tour de France - Mattopia Selects.

HERE WE GO!!!

A summary of my Selections......

The General Classification
1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Lance Armstong
4. Denis Menchov
5. Cadel Evans
6. Michael Rogers
7. Levi Leipheimer
8. Carlos Sastre
9. Frank Schleck
10. Roman Kreuziger

The Points Classification
1. Mark Cavendish
2. Tom Boonen
3. Oscar Freire
4. Thor Hushovd
5. Daniele Benatti

Mountains Classification
1. David Moncoutie
2. Franco Pelizotti
3. Alberto Contador
4. Carlos Sastre
5. Denis Menchov


The Betting.


Throughout the tour Mattopia will be looking at betting options.
Here is a few to start.
Overall
There is no value in the $2.26 Contador to win that is currently on offer at Betfair so looking at other bet types..........

King of the Mountains
$15.50 Alberto Contador
$24 Franco Pelizotti

Top 6
Michael Rogers $11.50

Stage Wins for Cavendish
$4.40 is on ofer for 4 stage wins - I like it.

So at $10 each that is a $40 outlay - of which we won't know the outcome until the end of the race.

Coke is it! - Aussie Out

BOONEN TO START IN TOUR - ALAN DAVIS MISS OUT

Boonen (wearing his Belgian national champion strip) trains yesterday with his team.

Tom Boonen will start in the Tour de France the Court of Arbitration for Sport of the French Olympic Committee has ruled.

It overturned the decision of the Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO), the Tour organiser, to exclude the Quick Step sprinter because of his positive out-of-competition tests for cocaine. The court's decision cannot be appealed.

Shakes the Green jersey comp up a bit now!

Should be a great battle.

After Tom won his 3rd Paris - Roubaix he asked if he could exchange his trophy for another type of brick, organisers are trying to source one for the race next year.


"careful with that dude, that's going to be Tom Boonens trophy if he wins Paris - Roubaix for the 4th time"