Vuelta a España

Vuelta celebrates 75th anniversary with quality field

The Vuelta a España celebrates its 75th anniversary, and 65th edition, this year and promises to produce three weeks of entertaining racing.


The race has a stellar field, possibly one of the best ever assembled for the last of the Grand Tours.  The General Classification will be hotly contested - with the exception of Alberto Contador - many of the biggest names in the sport are here.  Fränk and Andy Schleck ( Saxo Bank), Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam), Denis Menchov (Rabobank), Luis Leon Sanchez (Caisse d'Epargne), Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas) Oscar Periero (Astana) Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) and Christian Vande Valde (Garmin-Transitions),

The Worlds Best Sprinters in Mark Cavendish (HTC - Columbia), Tyler Farrar (Garmin Transitions) Thor Hushovd (Cervélo TestTeam) and Oscar Freire (Rabobank) are all set to ride.

The race starts with a late-night team time trial in Sevilla on Saturday night under the lights. There are eight mountain stages, including six summit finishes and one long individual time trial.

There was big controversy when the teams were announced with Radioshack left off the list of those invited. Lance Armstrongs team would not guarantee participation of its biggest names and was duly snubbed for some lesser continental teams. 

This should be a cracking race - stage previews to follow.

Contador replaces Schleck at Saxo Bank.

Alberto Contador will ride for team Saxo Bank-Sungard under Bjarne Riis next season after it was announced that the three-time Tour de France champion will join him in a two-year contract replacing his closest rival Andy Schleck.

“Alberto (Contador) is a world class rider and it’s with great pride that I can welcome him onboard the team for the next two years,” Riis said in a statement. “With three Tour de France victories on his resume and a position as number one on the world rankings, he is sure to stay at the very top for several years to come.”
Riis also announced that current sponsor, Saxo Bank, has decided to continue and the new squad will be called Saxo Bank-Sungard. Both contracts are through the 2011 season.

The announcement was highly anticipated since last week, when Contador rejected a demand from his Astana team that he make an immediate commitment to ink a deal for the upcoming season. While Contador didn’t rule out extending his contract with Astana, he also said he was weighing other options.

Contador’s arrival comes on the heels of the departure of the Schleck brothers, who are ending their career-long association with Riis to form a new Luxembourg-backed squad in 2011.The move sets the stage for a dramatic showdown between the sport’s two biggest stars, Schleck and Contador with Riis having the inside knowledge on the Schleck brothers.

Contador joined Astana following the departure of Discovery Channel, but had a controversial run with the team. In 2008, Astana was kept out of the Tour that year, prompting Contador to try to break his contract with the team. Contador again tried to get out of his contract with Astana following his tumultuous 2009 season that featured the return of Lance Armstrong. Following the departure of Armstrong and Johan Bruyneel, who left to create RadioShack, Contador was still unsure of his future at Astana.

Contador released the following statement: ”I'm very happy and excited about signing a two year contract with Riis Cycling. With the unique philosophy and team spirit the team offers I'm ensured solid support from the sponsors, administration and staff of riders that I'm looking forward to becoming a part of myself. Historically, Riis Cycling has always been successful and together, we will have the ability to play a very important role in the world of cycling in the years to come."Though not confirmed, several riders are expected to follow Contador to Saxo Bank-Sungard from Astana, including Benjamin Noval, Jesus Hernandez, Dani Navarro and David de la Fuente.

Riis has secured Contador as team leader but now must rebuild his team for 2011. Andy and Frank Schleck have gone and are taking with them Riis’ former directeur sportif Kim Andersen and former press officer Brian Nygaard to manage the team. A number of staff and experienced riders are also expected to jump ship and work with the Schlecks, including Jens Voigt and  Stuart O’Grady

2010 Tour de France Wrap Up.

Contador vs Schleck.

The 2010 TdF was all about last years 1-2 going at it again - and they did not disappoint.
Right from the start it was a battle royale, we had wait-gate, Chain-gate and then the epic showdown on the Tourmalet and a final time trial that was closer than anyone predicted.  Lets have a look at the critical stages in the 2010 battle for overall supremacy.

The Prologue - Contador's 2010 Tour began in a fine fashion as the two-time champion bested nearly every general classification rival in the opening race against the clock. Only Lance Armstrong fared better, finishing five seconds faster than the Spaniard, while Andy Schleck had a disappointing 122nd place finish

Contador gained 42 seconds over Schleck
Advantage: Contador by 42 seconds

Stage 2 - While Alberto Contador emerged relatively unscathed from the stage, Andy Schleck crashed twice on the Côte de Stockeu descent but was able to regain contact with the peloton as team mate & maillot jaune Fabian Cancellara organised a protest and effectively neutralised racing for all but solo stage winner Chavanel.

Contador and Schleck finished together, but it could have been different.
Advantage: Contador by 42 seconds

Stage 3 - The Cobbles.  Contador put in an admirable performance on the pavé, but was delayed by the crash which ended Fränk Schleck's Tour de France. The Spaniard was part of the first chase group, accompanied by powerhouse Astana teammate Alexandre Vinokourov, but Contador was gapped out inside the final kilometre with a broken spoke and finished 0:20 behind his chase companions and 1:13 behind Schleck.  Schleck had Cancellara thundering his way over the cobbles with Evans, Hushovd and Geraint Thomas along for the ride.

Schleck gained 1.13 on Contador.
Advantage: Schleck by 31 seconds

Stage 8. On the first major day in the mountains at the Tour, Schleck attacked an elite 13-man group of GC contenders with 1km remaining in the 13.6km mountain finish and only Olympic champion Sammy Sanchez could follow. Schleck outsprinted Sanchez for stage victory, while Contador finished 6th and surrendered 10 seconds to the Luxembourger.

Schleck gained 10 seconds on Contador
Advantage: Schleck by 41 seconds

Stage 10. On the steep Montée Laurent Jalabert climb, whose summit was 2km from the finish, Contador attacked the yellow jersey group and opened a gap to Schleck. Contador, accompanied by compatriot Joaquim Rodriguez, caught and passed Contador's teammate Alexandre Vinokourov, the last remaining member of the day's break, and the leading duo sprinted for stage honours. Rodriguez outkicked Contador for first, while Schleck finished 5th on the day in a five-man group of GC contenders, 10 seconds back.

Contador gained 10 seconds on Schleck
Advantage: Schleck by 31 seconds

Stage 15. In a stage which will likely be discussed for years, Alberto Contador donned yellow for the first time in the 2010 Tour following Andy Schleck's mechanical incident on the day's final climb, the hors categorie Port de Balès. Should Contador have waited for Schleck, the Tour maillot jaune? Not im my opinion. Thomas Voeckler was well ahead of the GC contenders and soloed to victory, Andy Schleck put in a strong attack approximately 2km from the Port de Balès summit. Moments later, however, the yellow-clad Luxembourger screeched to a halt with a dropped chain while Contador, Denis Menchov and Sammy Sanchez sped past. After Schleck fixed his problem, he put in a powerful surge to crest the Port de Balès summit only 13 seconds behind the Contador group. Schleck would lose time, however, on the lengthy, 21.5km-descent to Bagneres-de-Luchon and crossed the finish line 39 seconds behind Contador.

Contador gained 39 seconds on Schleck
Advantage: Contador by 8 seconds.

Stage 17.  In a tribute to the 100th anniversary of the Pyrenean climbs' inclusion in the Tour de France, the peloton finished atop the legendary Col du Tourmalet for only the second time in Tour history. The 18.6km hors categorie ascent to 2,115m, the Tour's highest point, would be the final climb of the 2010 Tour and a fitting battleground for Contador and Schleck to put their climbing talent to the test for overall GC supremacy.
10 kms from the Tourmalet summit, Schleck attacked the yellow jersey group and only Contador could follow. The dynamic climbing duo soon dispatched remaining riders from the early break, and flew through the dense fog to the summit finish. Schleck tried desperately to dispatch Contador, but the day ended in a stalemate as the pair finished in the same time with the Luxembourger picking up his second stage win of the Tour. Contador, however, remained in yellow by the same margin as the stage began: eight seconds.

Contador and Schleck finished together
Advantage: Contador by 8 seconds.

Stage 19 Contador was heavily favoured against Andy Schleck in the final time trial, but the Luxembourg  TT champ didn't go down without a fierce effort to wrest yellow from the Spaniard. Contador trailed Schleck by two seconds at the first time check, but steadily turned things around to lead Schleck by seven seconds at the second time check and ultimately 31 seconds at the finish. Contador sealed his third Tour de France victory with a 39-second advantage over Schleck, which just happened to be the same margin of time which the Luxembourger surrendered to Contador during "Chain-gate" on stage 15.

Contador gained 31 seconds on Schleck
Advantage: Contador by 39 seconds.

 

These guys are mates and are going to fight it out over the next 3-4 years.  They are very evenly matched in the mountains (although i think Contador could have ridden off on Schleck on the Tourmalet) and Contador holds a slight advantage in the TT.   Look for a mountain top TT next year!


Mark Cavendish
There is no faster sprinter in the world, there has possibly never been a faster sprinter in the world. The Manx missile is unbeatable in a bunch finish. 

He won five stages to take his tally to 15 stages in just 3 years. He did it without strongman Adam Hansen and from late in the race without his lead out man Mark Renshaw.  He said he wanted to win the Green Jersey more than anything this year, but this year found himself 11 points adrift of Alessandro Petacchi.  The big Italian won two stages in the first week, but Cav crashed in stage 1 and missed the sprint (team mate Hansen was 2nd there) and the points that would have won him the Mailot Vert.  Taking nothing away from Ale-Jet though, With his green jersey victory, Petacchi has now one the sprinter's jersey in all three grand tours. He now has 46 grand tour stage wins in his career, putting him among the best sprinter's ever to race their bikes    But as far as beating Cav in a fair fight - no.
Next year Cav.

The French Cycling Renaissance

Twenty-five years ago Bernard Hinault won the Tour de France. Laurent Jalabert retired in 2002. Those two events represent the last time a Frenchman won the Grande Boucle, and the last great champion the country has produced. The last eight years have had some bright spots for France, but those moments were fleeting, with success on cycling's biggest stages being few and far between - until now.

The French stepped up to the mark this year with an incredible 6 stage wins, 2 days in Yellow and the King of the mountains. Sylvain Chavanel (twice), Christophe Riblo, Thomas Voeckler, Perrick Fedrigo and Sandy Cassar all won stages and Chavanel held the Golden Fleece.  Add to this the Combativity Award (Chavanel) and the Mountains Classification to Jerome Pineau and you can see the the French have every reason to be excited.

The last time France won six stages of its home Tour was back in 1997, and this was in the “pre-Festina” era. Since that time the French have claimed that cycling was conducted at deux-vitesses (two-speeds), as French riders claimed – not entirely unreasonably – that they were subjected to far more controls than those of other nations. Foreigners, they claimed, could dope, but the French had to ride clean.

Drug Free!!

Dare I say it but another Drug free TdF.  I believe the close margins we have seen over the past 4 years (2009 aside) show that the war on drugs in pro cycling is being won.  The big advantages of having the best gear are gone, it is just men on bikes now. The best way to eliminate drugs is to use the science and technology that already exists today to help eliminate the possibility of getting the huge benefit from taking doping products.  Look at this link  http://www.sportsscientists.com/ for more.  Amazing Stuff.

and another thing.......

Lance was ordinary, Cadel Evans was ordinary (again - I'm sick of feeling sorry for him), Sastre was poor.  More evidence of the changing of the guard in pro cycling!

The Route
Bravo again to Christian Prudholme.  Last year I said that the only way they will beat Contador is less TT and more mountains.  Somehow the message got through and the TdF director delivered. Added to that was the spectable of the Cobblestones in the first week.  This was the best Tou in years, interesting from the start, interesting routes, stages and finishes.  Bravo.


The Future.

The lid is about to get blown off cycling in a big way. Landis has confessed, Armstrong has been subpoenaed to appear in court.  Something is going to come of this.

The Merry Go Round is going to have a few on it again this year.
Team Schleck - Frank and Andy are splitting with Bjarne Riis and starting their own Luxembourg squad.  Contador is leaving Astana and taking 4 other Spaniards with him.  Where to?  Well Contador has a personal sponsorship with bike maker Specialized, Riis is looking for a new sponsor (Saxo Bank are out), Specialized already involved with Riis as sponsor of Saxo Bank, and Riis needs a new leader.  My bet is on Team Specialized managed by Bjarne Riis and led by Alberto Contador.
Schlecks announcement this week: "It's official that we will not be riding with Bjarne next season."
"We're not going to stay. We're going to leave at the end of the year. All the doubts and news about us racing in the same team as Contador are now finished. We're not going to continue."
Funny that - no one had reported or was it rumored that Schleck and Contador would be riding in the same team - i think Andy told us where Contador is off to!
Menchov to Astana to fill the void i would think.

The rest of the Year..

The UCI pro tour calendar from here in.


31.07.2010     Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian - San Sebastian
01.08.2010     Tour de Pologne
15.08.2010     Vattenfall Cyclassics
17.08.2010     Eneco Tour
22.08.2010     GP Ouest France - Plouay
22.08.2010     Vuelta a España
10.09.2010     Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec
12.09.2010     Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal
03.10.2010    World Championships
16.10.2010     Giro di Lombardia

Stage 19 - The Race of Truth.

Bordeaux - Pauillac, 51 km

Individual Time Trial

This is the only time-trial stage of the 2010 edition. The route will wind its way through the streets of Bordeaux for fifteen kilometres, with avenues and buildings to shelter the riders. Then suddenly, they will leave the city and arrive in the open countryside, this should make for beautiful vision amidst the vineyards and famous landmarks of the Haut Médoc wine-making region, passing one château after another.

The race of truth.  The rolling terrain should suit TT world champion Fabian Cancellara, but after three weeks of racing today's performance will be as much about who's got some form left as ability against the clock.  ITTs late in the Tour often feature the GC contenders that have time trialling ability, they are in form, the hills dont hurt as much and have been preparing for this stage.  Contador will fly here - all he has to do is beat Schleck and he is a three time Tour winner. Schleck will be out to do the race of his life, but barring a mechanical i cant see him beating Contador.  Menchov can TT brilliantly when he is on, should jump into 3rd ahead of Sanchez all going well.  Leipheimer, Krueziger & Vinokourov all have fair TT ability and will want to improve their positions as well. Wiggins, Armstrong, Rogers and Martin are all great time triallers but may not have the legs to perform here although Wiggins said a few days ago he had switched his focus. 

Contador or Cancellara for me with a big performance from Schleck - but not enough to win.

Cavendish - easier than ever.

Cav wins again - the picture does not tell 1000 words in this case though - the margin was some 5 bike lengths.

Mark Cavendish put his stamp on the sprint finishes of this year's Tour, with his fourth bunch sprint stage victory in Bordeaux looking easier than ever. He had a five-bike length gap over Julian Dean and Alessandro Petacchi.  The Ale-Jet didn't win the stage but his third place finish gave him enough points to snatch it off the shoulders of Thor Hushovd who finished a disappointing 13th.
Of his completely dominant win Cavendish said "I only want to win, not matter by how much, when Petacchi went, I thought, that's it. But then it was pretty easy."

It was Cavendish's 14th career Tour stage win, all gathered within only three years. He has now outdistanced his mentor Erik Zabel, who himself won in Bordeaux in 1995 and 1997. "I have never seen anyone like Mark," said the old master, who gave his protégé several hugs after the stage.

It really is a shame that he crashed on stage 1 when Petacchi won.  The big Italian took 35 points there, ahead of Cavendish's team mate Mark Renshaw. Cavendish finished 178th after being taken out and received no points.  I think we all know that Petacchi would not have beaten Cavendish there, but even if he did, you would think that Cav would have grabbed 2nd ahead of his lead out man.  Those points would have him comfortably in the Green Jersey.  Cav is going to get 5 stage wins here and yet be robbed of the Mailot Vert for the 2nd year in a row.

Green Jersey Points classification after stage 18

#	Rider Name (Country) Team	Result
1	Alessandro Petacchi (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini	213	pts
2	Thor Hushovd (Nor) Cervelo Test Team	203
3	Mark Cavendish (GBr) Team HTC - Columbia	197
4	Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne	167
5	Robbie McEwen (Aus) Team Katusha	162
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Professional Cycling Team	152
7	Sébastien Turgot (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom	122
8	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	115
9	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi	112
10	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	107

Stage 18 preview - time for the sprinters!

 Salies-de-Béarn to Bordeaux, 190 km

 

It would be a massive surprise if the sprinters allow this one to get away. The day's break may as well be on a fishing line. The pan-flat countryside of Les Landes into Bordeaux host the Tour for the 80th time. It's the race's most visited location outside Paris and has a long reputation for epic bunch sprints. Well known for its wine, the long, straight finish on the Quinconces quayside is also well known for a mass finish. The overall contenders will want to stay out of trouble and save energy with tomorrow's time trial in mind.

Who has the legs to finish off. The green jersey battle has been epic thus far, only a few points between Hushovd and Petacchi.  Cav was strongest last year out of the hills, look for him to prove a point without Renshaw leading him out.

Schleck wins, but Contador does not lose.

Cycling is full of famous rivalries, Anquetil vs. Poulidor, Coppi vs Bartali,  Merckx vs. Ocana, Hinault vs LeMond, Armstrong vs Ullrich, (Flloyd Landis vs. Credibility) - now we have Contador and Schleck.

Stage 17 was the end of an epic mountain battle between the two that had seen Schleck drop Contador and take Stage 8 by 10 seconds, Contador managed to drop Schleck on Stage 12 and take back the ten seconds, then of course the now infamous chaingate saga.  The final showdown on the Tourmalet was supposed to separate the two riders and tell us definitively who was the best.
The peloton got moving to chase an early breakaway and reel in Carlos Sastre who tried to bridge across the gap, Saxo Bank did their usual job making a mess of the peloton, decimating the numbers on the early slopes of the Tourmalet. Up ahead the breakaway was fracturing and when the last Saxo Bank support rider pulled off with 10km to race Schleck was on his own against the world. 

Straight away he put on a powerful turn of speed that only Contador could match, they quickly left all the other contenders behind and gobbled up the last remnants of the break away.  They went man to man on the misty Tourmalet, lined three deep with cheering spectators, on and on Schleck powered with a Yellow clad shadow for company. It looked like he was trying to ride Contador off his wheel but post race Schleck said he had accelerated 15 times but Contador was too good.  For just the second time in this years Tour de France Contador attacked with 3.5kms to go - a huge attack that Andy was able to follow.  It was the only time in the whole climb that Contador rode at the front, he went back to Schlecks wheel with the poker face on. . He said afterward it was to remind Schleck that he was still there and felt good.  Schleck tried and tried again but he could not shake Contador. In the end Schleck took a well deserved win, the mutual respect between each dictated the outcome - Schleck would have the stage honours thanks to the work he had done throughout the course of the Tourmalet whilst Contador would sure up his ascendancy overall courtesy of the response to his young rival.  They are good mates, they embraced afterwards smiled and gave a great account of the battle. The conversations, the stares, the attacks.This was an epic battle that will be go down as one of the great stages of all time, these two showed they are minutes ahead of the competition with a climbing display like nothing before. They are going to be doing this a lot over the next few years! It all comes down to the Time Trial - a crash or dare is say mechanical problem will mean that Contador will win this edition of the Tour - Andy is no where near Contador in the TT, he is in the top few riders in the world. 

Results

#	Rider Name (Country) Team	Result
1	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	5:03:29
2	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
3	Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha	0:01:18
4	Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Transitions	0:01:27
5	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi	0:01:32
6	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank	0:01:40
7	Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank
8	Christopher Horner (USA) Team Radioshack	0:01:45
9	Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto	0:01:48
10	Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas-Doimo	0:02:14

General classifiation after stage 17

#	Rider Name (Country) Team	Result
1	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	83:32:39
2	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:00:08
3	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi	0:03:32
4	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank	0:03:53
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto	0:05:27
6	Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank	0:06:41
7	Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha	0:07:03
8	Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Transitions	0:09:18
9	Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas-Doimo	0:10:12
10	Christopher Horner (USA) Team Radioshack	0:10:37

The Tourmalet.

 Pau to Col du Tourmalet, 174 km

And so here we are, the Queen stage on the climb that has been used more than any other in TdF history - The Tourmalet.  Since 1947  the Tour has crossed the summit 47 times, with only one summit finish in 1974. The 2010 tour will be won or lost - here.  Two cat 1 climbs soften the legs before the biggest challenge of this years tour.  The Marie- Blanque isn't high but its last 4km average 10 per cent. The Soulor is longer, higher and tackled from its toughest side. Then to the Tourmalet, the highest climb of this year's race, they have already been over it once in the race, but this time it is from the harder side and the weather forecast is for rain. This is the place that legends are made and it looks as if stage 17 will be no different

Climbs

Km 13.5 - Côte de Renoir - 2.2 km climb to 6 % - Category 4
Km 56.5 - Col de Marie-Blanque - 9.3 km climb to 7.6 % - Category 1
Km 117.5 - Col du Soulor (D 126-D 918) - 11.9 km climb to 7.8 % - Category 1
Km 174.0 - COL DU TOURMALET (Souvenir Henri Desgrange) - 18.6 km climb to 7.5 % - Category H

Consider this passage from 'La Fabuleuse Histoire du Tour de France' by Pierre Chany.
"The Pyrenees were included in the Tour de France at the insistence of Alphonse Steinès, a colleague of the organiser, Henri Desgrange. Steinès first agreed that the Tour would pay 2,000 francs to clear the col d'Aubisque, then came back to investigate the Tourmalet. He started at Sainte-Marie-de-Campan with sausage, ham and cheese at the inn opposite the church and arranged to hire a driver called Dupont from Bagnères-de-Bigorre. Dupont and Steinès made it the first 16km, after which their car came to a stop.

Dupont and Steinès started to walk but Dupont turned back after 600m, shouting: "The bears come over from Spain when it snows."
Steinès set off. He mistook voices in the darkness for thieves. They were youngsters guarding sheep with their dog. Steinès called to one.
"Son, do you know the Tourmalet well? Could you guide me? I'll give you a gold coin. When we get to the other top, I'll give you another one."
The boy joined him but then turned back. Steinès rested on a rock. He considered sitting it out until dawn, then realised he'd freeze. He slipped on the icy road, then fell into a stream. He climbed back to the road and again fell in the snow. Exhausted and stumbling, he heard another, voice.
"Tell me who goes there or I'll shoot."
"I'm a lost traveller. I've just come across the Tourmalet."
"Oh, it's you, Monsieur Steinès! We were expecting you! We got a phone call at Ste-Marie-de-Campan. Everybody's at Barèges. It's coming on for three o'clock. There are search teams of guides out looking for you."
The organising newspaper, L'Autoz had a correspondent at Barèges, a man called Lanne-Camy. He took him for a bath and provided new clothes.

Steines sent a telegram to Desgrange:
"Crossed Tourmalet stop. Very good road stop. Perfectly feasible stop."


You might notice a statue perched on top Tourmalet. In 1910 when it was first included, Octave Lapize was first over the summit, he shouted at the officials at the top "Vous êtes des assassins! Oui, des assassins!' (French for 'You are murderers! Yes, murderers!'). Lapize went on to win the tour that year and the statue perched atop them mountain is of him.
This is a big mountain and the scenery is superb, it should make for some excellent viewing, good roads meaning it will be packed with tourists, this is one of those climbs where you wonder how the riders push through the packs.

 
The breakaway will go early with Charteau and his BBox team mates looking to defend the KOM jersey from the likes of Christophe Moreau, Sandy Casar, Damiano Cunego and Jerome Pineau.
There are big points available and these will be the last available points in the 2010 edition - any of these riders can still win with a maximum of 73 points available over the 4 categorsied climbs.

I doubt that they will be getting to the summit of the Tourmalet first though.  That honour will go to Schleck or Contador. Andy has said he will take his revenge on the Tourmalet and Saxo Bank stated on the rest day that they will throw absolutely everything at the race today.

If you only watch one stage in this years race - make it this one.  This has all the ingredients - the right conditions, the right climb, at the right part of the race with the top two as the best two climbers in the world and only 8 seconds between them - to go down in history as one of the greatest tour stages of all time.

Armstrong close but the French win again.

The mammoth 16th stage of the TdF ended in very similar fashion to stage 15, a French rider in a Bbox Bouygues Telecom uniform, in a breakaway crossed the line first. Pierrick Fedrigo gave France its sixth stage victory of the 2010 Tour after teammate Thomas Voeckler had saluted yesterday. Voeckler had attacked his breakaway companions and won comfortably, here is was Quick Step's Carlos Barredo attacking his breakaway - and staying away for 43 of the final 44km - heartbreakingly Barredo was caught by the very men he had left just over an hour prior with just 1km to go. That break away group contained a very aggressive Lance Armstrong and his team mate Chris Horner  - who did much of the work to catch Barredo - although the seven-time Tour champ could not quite sprint with younger legs at the finish. Fedrigo took the victory ahead of Sandy Casar with Ruben Plaza third.


The tough day in the Pyrenees; with four categorised climbs including two HC climbs, promised fireworks amongst the favourites but instead turned into an impasse after the drama of the closing 25km of stage 15. 
Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador buried the hatchet over Monday’s controversial chain-drop, but promise to fight to the death up the Col du Tourmalet on Thursday. Schleck and Contador hugged each other behind the podium presentation following the close of Tuesday’s stage and say that their friendship is intact despite the hubbub of Contador’s actions on the Port de Balès.
Schleck spoke to the media and said: “he came to apologize to me, that means a lot, That shows he’s a champion and that he has character.” He also added “I want to tell the public that they should not whistle (boo) at him. He’s a great rider and does not deserve that, I shouldn’t complain. If Alberto hadn’t waited for me on the second stage (to Spa) where I crashed, I wouldn’t have been in position to fight for this yellow jersey right now.”

Schleck and Contador are rare in that they are good friends off the bike but bitter rivals during the race.
So no change at the top, no change in the KOM although Christophe Moreau closed the gap taking the 40 points available on the last climb, it will be early fireworks on stage 17 there. One change that did take place though was the transferal of the green jersey, as Thor Hushovd again took charge of the intriguing battle for the points classification. The big Norwegian did enough to dress himself in green for stage 17, with a four-point lead in the standings.

A rest day today followed by the stage of this years tour, finishing on the Tourmalet.

Stage 16 Preview - This is enormous.

 

 

Bagnères-de-Luchon - Pau, 196 km

This stage crosses all four of the famous passes in the Pyrenees - the Peyresourde, Aspin, Tourmalet and Aubisque - before going down hill for a flat finish in Pau.  There is over 70km of climbing and 4500m of altitude.  Wow.  Of course the tour is paying homage to the 100th anniversary of 'high' mountains in the tour. This stage also pays homage to one of the greatest exploits in Tour history. In 1969, on a stage that crossed the same four passes as today's, race leader Eddy Merckx launched a solo attack at the foot of the Aubisque and rode away to the finish in Mourenx, just west of Pau, arriving almost eight minutes clear of his rivals.

 Climbs:

• Km 11.0 - Col de Peyresourde - 11.0 km climb to 7.4 % - Category 1
• Km 42.5 - Col d'Aspin - 12.3 km climb to 6.3 % - Category 1
• Km 72.0 - Col du Tourmalet (Souvenir Jacques Goddet) - 17.1 km climb to 7.3 % - Category H
• Km 138.0 - Col d'Aubisque - 29.2 km climb to 4.2 % - Category H

Well now this is a tough tough stage.  After two hectic days int he Pyrenees the riders face an enormous task over three huge climbs.   One of the most Mythical of TdF climbs, the Tormalet features and the riders should have a good look on the downhill, because they will ride back up it (from the opposite - harder - direction) tomorrow. expect a breakaway with big names - huge KOM points on offer, it is the kind of day that can win you that title.  It is also the last day for those big names like Armstong, Basso, Wiggins, Sastre, Cunego that are well down in the classification to drag them selves back as stage 17 with a summit finish will favour the leaders.  No doubt a fired up Schleck will look to take his revenge - but the final climb on the Aubisque although lone at almost 30km is only at anaverage 4.2% although the final 3km is at 7%.  I think no change in the top 5 of the GC, but attacks from those well down trying to get a respectable finish may result in a few changes there.

 

Contador takes Mailot Jaune after Schleck mechanical problem!

"I'm really disappointed. My stomach is full of anger, and I want to take my revenge ... I will take my revenge in the coming days."

                                                - Andy Schleck after losing the Yellow Jersey in Stage 15

A dropped chain cost Andy Schleck the yellow jersey as Alberto Contador took over the race lead.
Thomas Voeckler, The French Road race champion,  did was he does best - broke away from a 10 man breakaway to easily win the stage. It was the action behind that was causing drama though.

Up the final climb, the HC Port de Balès, the Saxo Bank team had put the pedal down and obliterated almost everyone.  Astana then took it up before Schleck went on the attack and with 4km to go to the summit, the lead group was down to just the five leading riders in the tour - Schleck, Contador, Menchov, Sanchez and Van den Brock.  Schleck was on the attack, today Contador played the waiting game behind.  Vinokourov managed to tack back on to support Contador and was responding to another of  the race leaders attacks when - Schleck suffered his mechanical - a dropped chain.  He was forced him to get off the bike while Vinokourov, Sanchez, Menchov and Contador rode away.

This was controversial, some TV pundits, current and past riders and people in the media are saying Contador should have waited.   It would have been fair play they say.  Did Schleck wait for Contador on the cobbles when he broke a spoke? No. Did anyone wait for Cadel when he had a mechanical in the 09 Vuelta? No? They cite Armstrong waiting for Ullrich in the 2001 edition after Ullrich crashed and the incident in 2003 when Armstrong's handlebar got caught in a spectator's yellow musette waving in the air and he fell  - Ullrich returned the favour and waited for Lance.  Interesting that Ullrich blames his 2000 defeat (he finished 2nd) on the psychological impact Lance waiting had.  In the 2003 incident Lance caught the waiting Ullrich group and attacked shortly afterwards. Ullrich was 2nd again.  Ulrich finished 2nd five times.  He is a good example of why you should not wait, sportsmanship or not.

But how was Contador to know what was going on?  He did not immediately know what had happened to his main rival for the yellow jersey as they raced towards the summit of the Port de Balès, but whatever had happened was simply part of racing.  This was supported by some respected Tour veterans. Asked for their opinion on the incident, Laurent Jalabert, Bernard Thévenet and Bernard Hinault all described Schleck's incident as an inescapable part of racing and said they were looking ahead to see how Contador and Schleck will respond.

 Schleck looks down at his mechanical problem that ultimately cost him the lead.

Contador couldn't afford to wait for the man who stood 31 seconds between himself and the race lead at the start of the day. Faced with a hard-charging Sanchez and Menchov who are only two minutes behind him on the GC - Contador was stuck between the rock and the harder place.

Once he got going, Schleck had to fight his way past Leipheimer, Vinokourov and Gesink to get back within sight of Contador, Sanchez and Menchov. He came over the summit 13 seconds behind Contador and started in on one of the toughest descents of the Tour. Sanchez pulled out all the stops, descending like a mad man with Menchov and Contador in his wake. Although Schleck was aggressive, he fell 25, and then 30 seconds behind on the descent. He was joined by Van den Broeck, who took some hard pulls, and Vinokourov, who of course did not.

Out in front though, it was the lone survivor of the day's break, the man who attacks at every opportunity and has captured the hearts of the French public of the years that was taking the plaudits. Voeckler stakes his entire reputation on days like this and now has two TdF stage wins to go with his 10 days in Yellow back in 2004.  Another win for the French and judging by his form today, I reckon Voeckler might giving it a red hot go again tomorrow.

The stage is set for two huge and possibly career defining stages for Contador and Schleck. The mythical Tournmalet  features on stage 16 and again on stage 17 with a summit finish.


Stage 15 Results

1	Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom	4:44:51
2	Alessandro Ballan (Ita) BMC Racing Team	0:01:20
3	Aitor Perez Arrieta (Spa) Footon-Servetto
4	Lloyd Mondory (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale	0:02:50
5	Luke Roberts (Aus) Team Milram
6	Francesco Reda (Ita) Quick Step
7	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
8	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
9	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank
10	Brian Vandborg (Den) Liquigas-Doimo
11	Johan Van Summeren (Bel) Garmin - Transitions
12	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:03:29
13	Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
14	Alexander Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana
15	Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank	0:03:55

General Classification

1	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	72:50:42
2	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:00:08
3	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi	0:02:00
4	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank	0:02:13
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto	0:03:39
6	Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank	0:05:01
7	Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack	0:05:25
8	Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha	0:05:45
9	Alexander Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana	0:07:12
10	Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Transitions	0:07:51

Tour de France Stage 15 Preview.

 

Pamiers - Bagnères-de-Luchon, 187 km

The second stage in the Pyrenees will see the riders attack the Port de Balès, a climb that was first featured just three years ago when the road was given a new surface -It was specially laid for cycling races. this climb does feature some sections of up to 11%  and this is sure to thin out the yellow jersey group. However the 20km downhill into the finish at Luchon means a GC shakeup is unlikely. Sure a good downhill rider can open up the gaps, for example Samuel Sánchez, as it is quite a technical descent, but more importantly those that are dropped might find it hard to get back up to the contenders on the high-speed downhill.  

 Climbs:

• Km 30.0 - Côte de Carla-Bayle - 3.1 km climb to 4.1 % - Category 4
• Km 105.0 - Col de Portet-d'Aspet - 5.8 km climb to 6.8 % - Category 2
• Km 126.5 - Col des Ares - 6.1 km climb to 4.7 % - Category 2
• Km 166.0 - Port de Balès - 19.3 km climb to 6.1 % - Category H

 

Look for a breakaway to try their luck- if they can crest the HC summit first, they will stay away.  If Saxo Bank - or more likely Astana try and flex their muscle a break might get caught and the games will start on the final climb.  No doubt riders well down in time will be given leeway (Maybe Lance?) in a break, big points on offer for KOM so the usual suspects will be there.  If the break is going to be caught look for the Port de Balès to be used by the opportunists riding with the GC group trying for a stage win  - Sastre, Vino, Cunego, Kiryienka. They can either go for early attack and try and stay away or a late one and look to get over the top first knowing they will be hard to catch.

We saw Schleck struggle with the downhill on the Col du Madeline - maybe Contador will attack late and try and pressure the leader on the downhill.  There is a big battle for 3rd taking place - expect the man generally regarded as the best descender in the peloton - Sammy Sanchez to attempt to get time on Menchov and the likes.    With a monster day tomorrow though, the favourites might take a break from all out hostilities on this stage.  One thing is sure though- i think Schleck will be the one following Contador.

 

 

The show down starts with a standoff - and another French win.

The Pyrenees have always billed as the main battleground of this year's Tour de France and although the first of four stages in this mountain range decided nothing, it did confirm what we all suspected - that the battle for the yellow jersey is between two men and two men only. Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.


It seemed today that the two of them were riding their own race, almost oblivious to everyone else and this was underlined on the final climb to the finish in Ax-3 Domaines, at the end of a day that had seen Contador's Astana team ride as though it was their man, rather than Schelck, in the yellow jersey.

The fantastic sideshow took place as Christophe Riblon of AG2R was the last man to remain of a 160km nine rider breakaway that had earlier looked set to be caught.  Riblon stayed away though and the Frenchman claimed the host country's fourth stage win of this Tour. His incredible solo effort was made more incredible by his confession afterward that he had almost abandoned the Tour the previous day!

Astana set a punishing speed up the days first climb, the Pailheres.  The peloton was quickly shredded and the days 9 man breakaway was under pressure and started falling away, by the summit it was Christophe Riblon attacking his last remaining breakaway companion Moinard. Behind him the GC group was quickly started claiming riders from the seemingly doomed breakaway and spitting them out the other end.  Towards the summit attacks came out of the main group from Carlos Sastre, Cunego, Valls Ferri and the man with one of the sweetest sounding names to ever roll of Phil Liggets lips, Vasil Kiryienk.  Contador and Schleck rode at the back of the bunch - Schleck always on Contadors wheel.  No attacks from these two on the first climb.

After a lightning descent, Vinokourov took up the pace making role to further shed contenders, by the time he was finished the GC group was down to nine - but still trailing the lone Frenchman Riblon by almost 2 minutes. After two punchy attacks from Contador that Schleck countered, the games started.
Schleck sat on Contador at the rear of the group, at times coming close to a standstill watching each other, Contador wanted Schleck to take the lead, Schleck was never going to the front. And so like two match sprinters performing a tactical track stand, using the 10% gradient rather than the banking of a velodrome the watched each other.  I have never seen this in a road race.

Denis Menchov saw what was going on, deciding that he had no use for the gamesmanship he duly attacked, putting time on Sanchez, who eventually clawed his way back. Up front Riblon looked strong all the way to the line at the ski area.
In the final kilometer Schleck and Contador, perhaps realizing that Menchov and Sanchez (4th and 3rd overall respectively) were taking time away from them, got down to business.

The post race interviews were revealing. Schleck said that he had decided earlier in the stage not to attack Contador, for fear of the Spaniard counter-attacking. "On a climb like that I cannot pass him," said Schleck. "I have to stay on his wheel."There was a little bit of mind games between us," he continued. "I made a mistake (on Friday's stage to Mende) to pass him, and he dropped me. But I learned from that."

This stage ended in a truce or maybe even a draw. They finished together in the same time, 1.08 behind Riblon, and only 14 seconds behind Menchov and Sanchez. But Schleck claimed to have won the mind games. "The situation Alberto's in now, it's not bad, but it's not great either," said Schleck. "He could not drop me today, and that gives me a lot of confidence.
"This is just a guess, but I guess he's not happy with how the stage went, because he did not gain time on me. His aim was to take yellow today..... It didn't work. He didn't gain a single second. I even think I was a little better than him today."

But Contador saw it differently of course - “We toyed with each other, but I think I finished the day on top,” said Contador. “But I don’t think the final climb was hard enough for either of us to take time off each other. In the end we decided to collaborate to chase down Menchov and Sanchez.”

Let the games continue.

 Stage 14 Results

1	Christophe Riblon (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale	4:52:42
2	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank	0:00:54
3	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
4	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:01:08
5	Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha
6	Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank
7	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
8	Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
9	Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini	0:01:49
10	Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team

 General Classification after Stage 14

1	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	68:02:30
2	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	0:00:31
3	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi	0:02:31
4	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank	0:02:44
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto	0:03:31
6	Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank	0:04:27
7	Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack	0:04:51
8	Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha	0:04:58
9	Luis León Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne	0:05:56
10	Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo	0:06:52

Schleck and Contador come to a near standstill.

Stage 14 - The Pyrenees Begin.....

Revel - Ax-3 Domaines, 184 km

 

The Tour’s decisive stages start with a tough test that begins easily enough but has two tasty peaks to spice up the closing kilometres.  The Port de Pailhères didn’t feature before 2003 but has become a Tour favourite with this being the 3rd time the riders have been up it in the last 8 years. It ramps up severely over a series of hairpins towards the summit, where the last 5km of the Pailhères switchbacks up a 10-foot-wide “road.”  After a rapid descent into Ax-les-Thermes the riders will reach the the foot of the final climb.  Ax-3 Domaines isn’t long and but has a gradient exceeding 10% in some sections - this should result in some significant time gaps

 

Climbs

• Km 155.5 - Port de Pailhères - 15.5 km climb to 7.9 % - Category H
• Km 183.0 - Ax-3-Domaines - 7.8 km climb to 8.2 % - Category 1

This is another cracking stage, a summit finish preceded by a HC climb.  I think we will see a breakaway get a few minutes down the road with the riders looking to give them selves every possible chance of staying away and collecting maximum KOM points.  It won't happen.  Astana and Saxo Bank will shred the Peloton at the base of the Pailhères and the GC group of 20 or so will fight up the slopes.  A few lower down the order might look to take advantage of Schleck and Contador marking each other and summit first with the chance to take some risks on the descent and start the final climb ahead of the big names.  After Andy Schleck  showed some fairly ordinary technical skills going down the Col du Madeleine the other day it may be Contador that chooses to attack on the first climb rather than the second and use the descent to put even more time into Schleck.  The group will be whittled down up the first climb, come back together on the downhill and be torn apart again by the second climb.  The high percentage gradients favour Contador - i think we will see Schleck and him go head to head on both mountains - but the damage will be done on the second and i think Contador might come out with a Yellow Jersey.

Whatever happens, the race starts in earnest here.  The next four stages are epic and this is not to be missed.

Victorious Vinokourov

 

Alexandre Vinokourov was beaten by his own team mate on Stage 12, but gained his revenge in Revel, thanks to a late attack that was bold and opportunistic but has always been his trademark.  He looked the winner on the climb to Mendes 24 hours prior before Contatdor blew past, but here he showed his enigmatic brilliance by breaking away - and staying away - from a charging peloton led by the sprinters teams.  They missed by just 13 seconds with Cavendish winning the bunch sprint, Petacchi 3rd and back into the Green jersey. Cav proved on a hilly stage that even without Renshaw, he is is still the one to beat on the flat.


The Contador haters have been out in force saying that he 'stole' stage 12 from Vino and that he should have let him win there.  The Contador haters are also Lance lovers let me remind you.  I can't remember a time when Lance gave up seconds in the yellow jersey race to let a teammate take a stage. That i because it never happened, because Lance, like Contador and Vino, know that the yellow jersey is the number one team goal.
There are no gifts in cycling. And if Contador hadn't attacked yesterday, Vino probably would have been beaten by Rodriguez anyway.

Vinokourov now has redemption with this stage win coming after his 2 year ban for blood doping. The guy has shown on the last two stages he is in scintillating form and post race seemed to pledge that, with the stage win in the bag, Contador would now have his full support in the Pyrenees. But he didn't rule out a second stage win. "I have a chance on the Champs Elysees," he said, remembering his win there in 2006  with a similar late attack. Contador might be needing Vinokourov more than ever after his two Spanish sidekicks crashed in the stage, with Dani Navarro – who has proven to be the strongest of the Astana fleet so far – and Jesus Hernández hitting the deck on the eve of the showdown in the Pyrénées.  Neither were injured but I now think that Astana - easily - have the strongest climbing team as we hit the Pyrénées.

Stage 12 - Contador takes time off Schleck

Alberto Contador took revenge for the time he lost on Andy Schleck last Sunday at Morzine-Avoriaz with short sharp attack on Stage 12. After a long hot day on winding and hilly roads, the stage finished on the short steep climb towards the runway of Mende, where yellow jersey wearer Schleck could not follow Contador's acceleration. The Luxembourg rider wasn't on Contador's wheel when he attacked and he was unable to close him down. The gap between the two protagonists of the general classification is now down to just 31 seconds.

Joaquin Rodriguez (Team Katusha) out-sprinted Contador to take a thrilling victory after the Spanish duo escaped on the steep slopes of the Montée Laurent Jalabert in the finale to an enthralling day’s racing that saw minor but potentially telling chinks exposed in the armour of yellow jersey Andy Schleck and his Saxo Bank team. The Luxembourg rider lost ten seconds to Contador, who laid down an important psychological marker ahead of the duo’s expected showdown in the Pyrenees.

At the foot of the final climb the peloton trailed the four survivors of the day’s early breakaway by 40 seconds, and the gap remained stable as Vinokourov dropped first Ryder Hesjedal and then Andreas Kloden  before finally edging clear of Vasily Kyrienka. Im sure that Vino was thanking about a stage victory  half way up the climb, however when Rodriguez attacked with 2km to go, Contador responded with an explosive acceleration of his own and immediately opened a gap on Schleck who could not go with him.

With Rodriguez clinging on to his wheel for dear life, Contador made up almost forty seconds on his Astana teammate in little over a kilometre, and then proceeded to blow straight past him. Schleck, Van den Broeck, Samuel Sanchez and Menchov managed to limit their losses in the slightly downhill run to the line. Rodriguez did no work on the way up the climb and he timed his sprint to perfection to come around Contador on the line. Vinokourov managed to stay within sight to grab third place on the stage, while Schleck crossed the line in 5th place, ten seconds behind his rival.

The 10 seconds is exactly what Contador lost to Schleck on Stage 8 to Morzine, although i think that this 10 seconds represents more than just an increment of time - Contador landed a physical and psychological body blow by proving that he could accelerate away from Schleck on the steep climb to the finish.

He dropped Schleck here and took 10 seconds - imagine what he is going to do on the Tourmalet.

Bring on the Pyrenees!!

 This is what Schleck and the rest of the Peloton are going to be looking at over stages 14-17.

Stage 12 Preview

 

Bourg-de-Péage - Mende, 210 km

 

Stage 12 to Mende looks fairly sedate when compared with the profiles of the Alps and upcoming Pyrenees. But there is a sting in the tail here - the final ascent of the Montée Laurent Jalabert,(after the Frenchman’s famous Bastille Day win there in 1995)

This Category 2 climb comes after 200km of racing with four categorised climbs before it.

• Km 31.0 - Côte de Saint-Barthélémy-le-Plain - 10.7 km climb to 3.1 % - Category 3
• Km 59.0 - Col des Nonières (NONIERES) - 5.7 km climb to 3.8 % - Category 3
• Km 96.0 - Suc de Montivernoux - 13.7 km climb to 4.4 % - Category 2
• Km 133.0 - Côte de la Mouline - 3.9 km climb to 5 % - Category 3
• Km 208.5 - Côte de la Croix-Neuve (Montée Laurent Jalabert) - 3.1 km climb to 10.1 % - Category 2

The final climb is just 3.1km long but at an average gradient of 10.1% is a brutal finish.

Alberto Contodor knows the climb into Mende quite well, in the 2007 Paris Nice on Stage 44 when he showed signs of what was to follow later in the season, he ripped into the climb and announced himself as a major tour contender in a big way with a blistering win.  The same Montée Laurent Jalabert climb featured on Stage 4 of this years Paris- Nice and it was again Contador who launched an attack that no one could match to take the stage and put himself in the lead.

A Breakaway may succeed on this stage if the right combination is allowed to get away, expect KOM point hunters like Pineau to go out looking for maximum points and keep himself in the polka dots before the high mountains and big points are on offer.

However if some of the teams fancy one of their riders having a go up that final brutal climb the pace might ramp up and the breakaway get caught.  Schleck and Contador have proved very even so far, but this is climb that suits Contador more than Schleck - high gradient where he can use his acceleration and quickly put time into rivals.  Even if the breakaway does succeed this short climb may have a bearing on the result - i expect Contador and Schleck to mark each other here - I think Contador is waiting for the big hills and he knows that although he is 41 seconds behind, Schelck needs closer to 2 minutes going in to the time trial.  All he has to do is stay with him,  however in light of past performances on this same road, i almost expect Contador to try and take back 20 or 30 seconds with a big attack here - even if it is just to test Schleck out.

 Contador wins Stage 4 of the 2010 Paris Nice

Stage 11. Cav wins again - Renshaw disqualified.

Mark Cavendish took his 3rd stage win of the 2010 tour and his 13th overall with a scintillating sprint to again show that he has no peer.  The 13th stage win was somewhat 'unlucky' though with lead out man extraordinaire Mark Renshaw disqualified for headbutting Kiwi Julian Dean.  The controversial DSQ, from the whole tour, not just the stage, leaves Cavendish without his key ally, the man that does the final piece of work to deliver him to the right spot.  There was a bit of headbutting each way, it is fairly common in sprint finishes, Julian Dean moved off his line a fair way, Renshaw was left with two options, push back with his head or go into the barriers.  It is a harsh decision when you consider Barredo and Costa boxed on after the finish a few days ago and only got a fine of 200 euros each. But through the mayhem unfolding, Cav went earlier than usual, 450/500m - a long way out - and won again - comfortably.

He has no peer.

Stage 11 Preview.

Sisteron - Bourg-lès-Valence, 180 km

 

The Tour exits the Alps in stage 11, cruising through the foothills of the Drôme region. With only one Cat. 3 climb 56km into the stage, followed by a gradual downhill and flat finale in Bourg-Lès-Valence, a big sprint finish is highly likely. This is the last good chance for the sprinters’ teams to organize a bunch finish for more than a week, so it is hard to imagine any other scenario.

  

Prediction: Early Breakaway, caught with 20km to go, then Cavendish ahead of the bunch.

Stage 10 review - Radioshack gets a win.

Bastille Day and two French riders in a day-long break... it would have been a Fairy Tale, but Radioshacks Sergio Paulinho hadn't read the script. The 6 man group started to attack each other with 15km to go, but it was Paulinho's attack at 10km remaining of the stage that saw him and Caisse d'Epargne's Vasili Kiryienka stay clear, with Paulinho pipping the Belarusian at the post in what was a tight finish.

After the difficulty of yesterday's stage, there was a sense of inevitability to the formula for today's 179km journey from Chambéry to Gap: let the right break take a lot of time ahead of the peloton, sit back relax.

No changes at the top.


Stage 10 Result

1	Sergio Paulinho (Por) Team Radioshack	5:10:56
2	Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Caisse d'Epargne
3	Dries Devenyns (Bel) Quick Step	0:01:29
4	Pierre Rolland (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom
5	Mario Aerts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto	0:01:33
6	Maxime Bouet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale	0:03:20
7	Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale	0:12:58
8	Rémi Pauriol (Fra) Cofidis, Le Credit en Ligne	0:13:57
9	Mark Cavendish (GBr) Team HTC - Columbia	0:14:19
10	Alessandro Petacchi (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini