This is the sign that greets players at 1st tee of the Bethpage Black course. Very ominous, and that is without the wind and rain that the players have enjoyed at this years open.Where we are at....
The young unknowns in Lucas Glover and Ricky Barnes lead the US open at 7 under with 17 to play, Mickleson, Mahan, Duval and Fisher are at 2 under with all except Fisher having 16 to play (fisher 17). Mike Weir could not continue his great efforts in the first 2 rounds and had a 3rd round 74 and he is one over for the final round having played 3 holes and sits at -1. Tiger has played 7 holes and is even. the rest - well i dont think it matters.
The Betfair market has Glover favourite at $2.68, sure he is 5 shots clear of all but his co-leader but for a guy who has been on the pro tour for 7 years and won once, you can't really be that confident (not $2.68 confident!) in his finishing ability when the pressure is on - big unders. Barnes is $6, he has been on the tour since 2003 and has never won - he is already showing cracks, dropping shots yesterday with bogeys on 6 of the last 13 holes he played. If he keeps it together the $6 on offer is a really good price, certainly with 5 shots over all but Glover, however i would not be taking it with what he showed yesterday. Willing to risk. Phil Mickelson is a winner of 3 majors and with 43 professional wins (2 this year) is certainly the man with the experience. He has won 8 of 10 playoffs if it comes to that. He made birdies on 4 of the last 6 holes in round 3 and then was even after his 2 holes in the last round. His 35 foot birdie put on the 18th in the 3rd round was greeted by a thunderous roar from the crowd - he certainly is the one they want. He is $6.60 and in my mind represents the best value here. David Duval has been most consistent, he is on the same score as Mickleson, on the same hole but $28 is being bet - certainly overs for a past world number 1 and major winner, although he has not won for 8 years. The $3.60 for a top 5 finish might be a better bet there. Mike Weir has thrown away his brilliant start 64 in the first round followed by 70 and then 74, already +1 after 3 holes in the final round it is going to take a big turn around to rediscover the form from just 2 days ago. Then there is Tiger. 7 shots from the lead, just 11 holes to play where the others have 16 & 17 and none of his 14 majors have been won when not leading into the final day. But its tiger. $2.50 for the top 5 is a decent price for the worlds best golfer, $17 for the win is far to short for a golfer trailing by 7 with only 11 to play, it should be $90. But its tiger, you always risk leaving him out but risk him i will.
The possible bets i would be looking at are Mickelson the win ($6.60) and top 5 finishes for Woods ($2.80) and Duval ($3.65)
Well Glover holds on to win but really it is a case what could - or should - have been. When Mickelson Birdies 9 and 12 and then eagles 13 the tournament is his for the taking - but bogeys at 15 and 17 leave him in second place. Duval starts the day with a double bogey on his first hole (the 3rd), has 2 birdies on the front none then is coming home with birdies on 14,15 & 16 to get a share of the lead. Tragically a Bogey on the 17th all but hands the tournament to Glover.
ReplyDeleteSo the $3.60 for Duval to finish top 5 was a decent bet, covers the other 2 losing bets. Still i think it was a case of being unlucky for woods. His His First round was atrocious, caused mainly by teeing off late and therefore having to contest the wind and the mud that seemed to cover his ball on ever fairway, but in his last 3 rounds he shot 69,68,69 - no other player scored better of the final 3 rounds.
But well done to Glover, to shoot +3 in the final round of a major and still win shows how hard it was for everyone else as well.
Geez Matt, even Tiger might struggle on the Black Course!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGreat to see you up and running and I can't wait for your world famous Tour De France analysis.