Tour de France 2009 - The Green Jersey.

Malliot Vert

Robbie McEwen after winning his 3rd Malliot Vert - sadly injury will mean he will not be here this year.

The battle for sprint supremacy does not always go to the best sprinter or fastest man in the peleton. Last years winner Oscar Freire only won the one stage, but he comfortably won the jersey. This was because Freire was consistently in the finish - he figures in bunch finishes and is able to compete in some of the harder stages as well - and also because Mark Cavendish wanted an Olympic gold medal so he packed up and left early, missed a chance at a green jersey and missed an olympic medal as well! You dont win the Green by just racking up stage wins, rather you have to being consistent over the whole race. If your competition is in the finish of a stage, you need to be there as well. Tricky stages that might be relatively flat but are not for the pure sprinters (with bunch finishes and lead out trains) because of short straights or uphill kicks can be a trap - Freire was able to breakaway on a stage last year that featured a small uphill finish - he and his breakaways got the points and they were denied to the pure sprinters competing for the jersey.

This year there are not that many tricky stages for the sprinters, a few rolling days which might sap some energy come final sprint time but a lot of stages with long lead ins to the line should mean that the fastest can win quite often.

This year we are robbed of three time green jersey winner (2002/04/06) Robbie McEwen who is out injured and probably will also be without 2007 winner Tom Boonen who tested positive for Cocaine for the 3rd time!. Still, 2008 champ Oscar Freire and 2005 winner Thor Hushovd will front up, then there is the possiblity of Aussie Alan Davis, Danielli Benatti and the quasi-aussie Heinrich Haussler mixing it up with the universally acclaimed fastest sprinter in the world Mark Cavendish. Columbia-HTC (Cavendish) Quickstep (Boonen or Davis) and Cervelo (Husovd) always have great good sprint trains going in the bunches, it should be fast on the flat!

How The Points Work
In every stage, the first finishers are awarded points for the Overall Points Classification. The stages are divided into several types: individual time trials, flat stages, undulating stages and mountain stages. There are also intermediate sprints during each stage.

A rider has to complete the Tour in order to be ranked in the Final Points Classification.

FLAT STAGES (stages 2,3,5,6,10,11,12,14,19,21)
1st 35 points, then 30,26,24,22,20,19,18,17 etc all the way down to 1 point for 25th place

UNDULATING STAGES (stage 13)
1st 25 points, then 22,20,18,16,15,14,13,12 etc all the way down to 1 point for 20th

MOUNTAIN STAGES (stages 7,8,9,15,16,17,20)
1st 20 points, then 17,15,13,12,10,9,8 down to 1 point for 15th

TIME TRIALS (stages 1 & 18)
1st 15 points then 12,10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1 down to 10th.

and the riders............

Mark Cavendish
Columbia - HTC
Major Wins
4 Stages 2008 Tour de France
2 Stages 2008 Giro d'Italia
4 Stages 2009 Giro d'Italia
2009 Milan - San Remo
2005/08 Madison World Champion (track)

Quite simply the fastest man on two wheels. All things being equal no one is going to beat Cavendish in a straight line sprint. He was a revelation last year when he won 4 stages before packing up and going home so he could prepare for the olympics. Despite all the stages he was not leading the points competition when he left, he did not chase intermediate sprints, it was all about the win for him. Same story at the Giro this year, 4 stages, left early but was not leading the classification either. Columbia has said it is time to deliver, they have given him some solid lead out men and he will have one of the best trains (including Aussie Mark Renshaw) so he should not have to many excuses. So if he plays the game the right way, chases points and makes sure he is in the right spot he should win, the even money quote with most betting shops reflects that. His victory at this years Milan - San Remo - the longest of the one day classic races, showed that he has developed into a very solid rider who is able to sprint after 300km of riding - no stage of the tour is that long. Heinrich Haussler had that race shot to pieces, he kicked was away and they were never going to get him with 100m to go - and then came Cavendish. Go to you tube and search for 2009 Milan - San Remo, simply amazing.
This year he has been in devastating form have a look at this win list for 2009, he has regularly beaten most of the men he is up against here - so far this year no one comes close to matching this kind of record:

Tour of Qatar
1st Stage 4
1st Stage 6
Tour of California
1st Sprints Classification
1st Stage 4
1st Stage 5
Tirreno-Adriatico
1st Stage 7
Three Days of De Panne
1st Points Classification
1st Stage 2
1st Stage 3
Giro d'Italia
1st Stage 1 Team Time Trial
1st Stage 9
1st Stage 11
1st Stage 13
Tour de Suisse
1st Stage 3
1st Stage 6
1st Milan-Sanremo

He has a lot of wins over the very men he will be racing here, but this is 3 weeks of racing not a single stage and there are a few questions on Cavendish.
It is time to deliver.

Oscar Freire
Rabobank
Major Wins
1999/01/04 World Road Race Champion
2005 Tirreno-Adriatico
2004/07 Milan-Sanremo
2008 Ghent-Wevelgem
2 Stages 2000 Vuelta a España
1 Stage 2002 Tour de France
1 Stage 2004 Tour de France
2 Stages 2006 Tour de France
3 Stages 2007 Vuelta a España
1 Stage 2008 Vuelta a España
1 Stage 2008 Tour de France
Points Classification 2008 Tour de France

One of only 4 men to have won 3 World Championships, Oscar Freire is the reigning points champ and remains on eof the most talented sprinters in the world. Last year he won just a single stage but was regularly top 3 and fought and scrapped for every point he could, he was there on the bunch sprints, the undulating days with uphill kicks and he does it pretty much on his own. When Cavendish left the tour at stage 14 he had won 4 of them and yet Freire had worn the Green jersey from stage 8. He is not going to get much help from his team but that will not bother him. He is often overlooked, but Freire will pop up and win a stage somewhere, he picks them up regularly on the tours of France and Spain and you don't become a two time winner of the monumental Milan - San Remo without being very strong all round. He will be in the finish of just aboout every stage because he is able to climb over some of the obstacles others can not. He will rely on his experience and road craft to try and beat Cavendish and pick up points at every opportunity.


Thor Hushovd
Cervelo Test Team
Major Wins
1998 U23 World TT Champion
2006 Gent-Wevelgem
1 Stage 2001 Tour de France
1 Stage 2002 Tour de France
1 Stage 2004 Tour de France
1 Stage 2005 Vuelta a España
2 Stages 2006 Tour de France
1 Stage 2006 Vuelta a España
1 Stage 2007 Giro d'Italia
1 Stage 2007 Tour de France
1 Stage 2008 Tour de France
Points Classification 2005 Tour de France
Points Classification 2006 Vuelta a España

Thor - The God of thunder. The big Norwegian has changed teams after 9 successful years at Credit-Agricole. He has picked up stages in all but two Tour de Frances since 2001 - amazingly he did not win a stage in 2005, the year he won the Green Jersey. He has been in good form this year, a Stage of the Tour of California, 2 stages of Vuelta a Catalunya as well as a pair of 3rds in two of the biggest spring classics, the Paris-Roubaix and the Milan - San Remo. Cervelo have spent half their team looking after Sastre in a bid for another GC win but with Haussler, Roulston and Aussie Brett Lancaster they will prove a formidable sprint team. Both Hushovd and Haussler are capable of wins but in a bunch finish it goes to the big guy over his team mate.


Danielli Benatti
Liquigas
Major Wins
2 Stages 2007 Tour de France
3 Stages 3007 Vuelta a España
3 Stages 2008 Giro d'Italia
2 Stages 2008 Vuelta a España
Points jersey, Vuelta a Espana (2007)
Points jersey, Giro d'Italia (2008)

Benatti has been accumulating wins on major stages races on a regular basis over the past few years. To go with points classification wins in the Giro and Vuelta he also has won the points classification on the Tour de Suisse (2006, 2007) Deutschland Tour (2005) & Tour de Romandie (2008). He is consistent and he gets results. He wins stages and he chases points. He won't be getting a heap of support from his team as they look to support Kreuziger, Pellizotti and Nibali in the search for stage wins and a GC result. He missed the 2008 Tour with an injury and has missed this years Giro as well, hopefully he is fit and firing as he can make and impression.

The Quickstep situation. At the time of writing we are still unsure if Tom Boonen or Alan Davis will fill the last position for Quickstep. Boonen tested positive to cocaine in an out of competition test. For the third time - 2007/08/09 - reads like his Palmares! He is not banned from competing (he won the Belgian championships last weekend) however the organiser of the tour has decied that they dont want him to compete, it lokos bad for the sport. So Quickstep (who of course are under pressure from sponsors) want their best rider out there, have gone to court. On Monday the civil court of Nanterre, France, declared itself not competent to rule on the case between the Belgian Quick Step team and Tour de France organiser, ASO. So we are in limbo! Quick Step and Boonen have decided to ask the French Olympic Committee court (CNOSF) make a ruling, we are still waiting. If Boonen does not ride, the sprinters position on Quickstep will go to Aussie Alan Davis.

Tom Boonen
Quickstep
Major Wins
2005/08/09 Paris-Roubaix
2005 World Road Race Champion
2005/06 Ronde van Vlaanderen
2004 Gent-Wevelgem
2 stages 2004 Tour de France
2 stages 2005 Tour de France
2 stages 2007 Tour de France
2 stages 2008 Vuelta a Espana
Points Classification 2007 Tour de France

A man who racks up wins in classics, stage races and just about everything else, a green Jersey winner, world champ and 3 x winner of the queen of the classics - the Paris-Roubaix. Without doubt one of the most talented bike riders on the planet. He apparently celebrates these wins with copious amounts of cocaine - has tested positive in 2007, 2008 and 2009! Last year he missed the tour after a positive cocaine test and apparently after not being one to heed warnings failed another out of comp test in april. So the courts will decide if he can race or not. Im guessing not.

Alan Davis
Quickstep
Major Wins
not much in the way of major wins when compared to the others - however..
2009 Tour Down Under (3 stages)
Points Classification 2009 Tour Down Under
2nd 2007 Milan - San Remo
5th in 2005 Tour de France points classification

If Tom Boonen does not get a gig - Davis will be the beneficiary. A very solid sprinter without the big results on the board, he has stage wins in minor races, however his best result in europe is probably the 2nd to Oscar Freire in the 2007 Milan San Remo. He has racked up wins with ease on the tour down under (6 stages total) and won the race overall this year. I thought he rode quite well in the recent Giro d'Italia, no wins but finished top 5 on six of the sprint finishes there. A little more luck, and he will be the head of a team that will have a mcuh better lead out train in the Tour than the one he had in the Giro - arguably the best in the business. He can possibly pinch a stage and his consistency will see him hopefully top 5 in the points standings.

Heinrich Haussler
Cervelo Test Team
Major Wins
1 stage 2005 Vuelta a Espana

Aussie by birth, Haussler moved to Germany at 14 to pursue his dream, with German parents, he rides under a German licence, however is looking to change his allegiance to Australia next year. He has had some major results this year, not the winning kind, however he has placed 2nd in the Milan San Remo (to Cavendish when everyone thought the race was won! - have a look at the photo at right, they gapped the field) 2nd in the Ronde van Vlaanderen, a stage of Paris - Nice, 2 stages of Volta ao Algarve. Along with Hushovd, Haussler will be looking for stage wins knowing that they will also have to do some work for the team supporting Sastre. He is not a pure sprinter probably more of a stage racer but you could argue the same about Boonen. Look for Haussler going early, he is very strong and as we saw at Milan - San Remo it took an unbelievable ride from Cavendish to catch him. I think this guys is a star in the making and Im betting he will win a stage somewhere.

Ok then there are those that will be fighting for the scraps....

Tyler Farrar
Garmin- Slipstream
Major wins
-

Nothing of note but the kid is fast, with some great fast men on his team might get a decent lead out to put himself in the finish on a few stages.

Gerald Ciolek
Milram
Major Wins
2005 German National Champion
2006 U23 World Champion
5 stages Tour of Germany

This youngster won the German Nationals as an 18 year old. Yep 18. He beat some very very good riders from Germany to win that title - and some very juiced up Germans at that. An under 23 world title followed, wins on his home tour followed that. Now with Milrams king Erik Zabel gone Ciolek was recruited to fill the void - has not had great results so far this year but he is strong and fast and what better race to go for broke?

Leonardo Duque
Cofidis
Major Wins
1 stage 2007 Vuelta a Espana
4th in 2008 Tour de France points Classification

Honest and always there abouts in a sprint, will go for intermediate points and may chalk up another top 5 finish.


My Prediction
Without Boonen

1. Cavendish
2. Hushovd
3. Freire
4. Davis
5. Benatti

With Boonen
1. Cavendish
2. Boonen
3. Hushovd
4. Freire
5. Benatti

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Next I preview the climbers and then an overview of each team and their best chances at yellow, green, polka doots and stage wins.