Stage 8 - The Alps........

Station des Rousses - Morzine-Avoriaz 189km

Here we are. After a tumultuous first week the 2010 Tour de France arrives at the first real mountains, the Alps.  Stage 8 takes us to Morzine, a ski resort village near the Swiss border.  These are not the hardest climbs in the tour, they are only category 1 climbs and while no rider will win the tour here, a rider might lose it here. 

The two category 1 climbs are:
Col de la Ramaz - 14.3 km at an average gradient of 6.8 %
Morzine-Avoriaz - 13.6 km climb at 6.1 %

Sylvain Chavanel has said that he will try and defend his Yellow Jersey here, honourable but highly unlikely.  The breakaway should be caught on the final climb and you will see all the GC contenders and better climbers in the finale.  Cadel Evans is the prime candidate to be in Yellow after this stage. he is 30 seconds ahead of Schleck and 1min and 1 second ahead of Alberto Contador.  If it is not Evans, then possibly Schleck or an escapee. Contador might be winning this stage - but i do not think he wants the yellow jersey - yet.  Last year on the stage 7 summit finish at Arcalis, the main peleton was busy catching up to a breakaway group on the mountain finish, Evans was well in arrears and attempted to attack a few times but was easily marked.  If you recall the stage 1st year pro Bryce Felliu won, however it was Contador who created the headlines - with just 2km to go and the GC riders all together Contador said Au Revoir (or its spanish equivalent) and simply danced away from the other contenders.  By attacking late in the stage he was able to put time into the likes of Schleck, Armstrong and Evans (who was well behind) but the timing ensured that he delivered the Yellow Jersey to Rinaldo Nocentini - by a mere 6 seconds. Astana did not have to defend the jersey against Saxo Bank, Nocentini and his team were left with that task for 8 days before Contator took what was his. 

I see a similar situation here, whether a break gets away or not, the main group will be together on the final climb and Contador will look to get back 40 or 50 seconds.  In the space of 2km last year he took 21 seconds from Evans, Armstrong and the Schlecks, tonight i think he might be looking for under a minute - just enough to leave Evans in Yellow - or a lucky escapee like Nocentini last year. If Schleck goes with him, it might be that Andy Schleck finds his way to the Malliot Jaune and Saxo Bank have another big week ahead of them. That would suit Contador as well.