The Yellow Jersey.

GO TO: My Analysis of all the teams, including a complete list of riders.  The Green Jersey

The Yellow Jersey is awarded to the man who completes the course in the fastest time. Whoever is leading at the end of each stage wears the yellow the next day. There are no longer time bonuses awarded for stage wins and intermediate sprints (they were removed three years ago).

Last years results for the Yellow Jersey or General Classification (GC) as it is known:

1	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	85:48:35
2	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:04:11
3	Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana	0:05:24
4	Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream	0:06:01
5	Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:06:04
6	Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana	0:06:42
7	Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas	0:07:35
8	Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin - Slipstream	0:12:04
9	Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas	0:14:16
10	Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Française des Jeux	0:14:25

2010 sees 3 men competing who have won the yellow jersey in the past:
Sastre (2008)
Contador (2007/09)
Armstrong (1999-2005)

Add to that the riders who have finished 2nd:
Evans (2007/08)
Kloden (2004/06)
A. Schleck (2009)
I. Basso (2005)

and those that have finished 3rd:
Menchov (2008)
Leipheimer (2007)
Basso (2004)
Vinokourov (2003)


We also have the White Jersey (youth classification) winners from the last 8 years:
Ivan Basso (2002)
Denis Menchov (2003)
Vladimir Karpets (2004)
Yaroslav Popovych (2005)
Damiano Cunego (2006)    
Alberto Contador (2007)    
Andy Schleck (2008/09)


This is a super field, I really think the best in the last 5 years - we should be in for a great race.


The big question is can anyone beat Alberto Contador?

The Yellow Jersey Contenders.

Alberto Contador.
Astana
Major Wins.
2007/09 Tour de France
2008 Giro d'Italia
2008 Vuelta a España
2007/10 Paris - Nice
2005 Setmana Catalana
2008/09Vuelta al País Vasco
2007/08/10Vuelta a Castilla y León
2009 Spanish Time Trial Champion

Tour de France Stage Wins: 4

One of only 5 men to have won all 3 grand tours (France Italy and Spain) and he had achieved this at the ripe old age of 25. He is the best stage racer and grand tour racer in the world bar none.He has started in 5 grand tours and won 4 of them.  He wins on mountains and he wins Time Trials.  He has won the worlds best 1 week race -Paris Nice - twice, including this year and basically wins everything he sets his mind to.
We all knew he was the best climber in the world, but last year he showed us he is among the best Time Triallers in the peloton, certainly of the GC contenders.  Last year he had the strongest team with Lance, Leipheimer and Kloden but they are on Radioshack this year.  I thought the team did nothing for him last year, they worked for the team rather than Contador, they worked to get Lance on the podium if anything. Contador only attacked twice in last years tour - on stage 7 to Arcalis, the first summit finish he attacked the GC group. Make no mistake he could have won that stage and put himself in yellow but with queries on Astana leadership and 2 weeks of riding to follow meant that he did just enough to jump into second and leave himself 6 seconds adrift of Italian Rinaldo Nocentini. He then attacked on the second summit finish, stage 15 to Verbier and won the stage, taking yellow and destroying the hopes of, well, everyone really. At the final summit finish on Mount Ventoux he rode defensively and just marked Andy Schleck, he never ever looked under pressure. To me he could have won this race by a long way if he chose to grind his opponents (read: team mate L Armstrong) into the ground.

So how does the might of Saxo Band and Radioshack bring Contador undone?  They will not beat him in the hills and if they try it might backfire, he looks like he could just ride off on everyone. They wont take time off him in the TT. So it will be left to the cobbles and the flat lands in the first weeks to try and get some time off him.  Whilst he does not have a team of stars, Vinokourov is a weapon with a mountain of experience who will help in the hills, Noval is a pure climber who has been on the Tour winning team three times (twice with lance, once with Contador), Hernandez is experienced in the mountains and the rest are serviceable. The other teams would want to get organised and try and break him early, because if he is not already in the lead, he will win stage 17 on the Tourmalet and put everyone out of their misery.

Poor tactics, a crash or something really extraordinary are the only way Contador is going to get beaten.

Prediction: 1st



Andy Schleck
Saxo Bank
Major wins
2009 Liege - Bastogne - Liege
2nd place 2009 Tour de France
2nd place 2007 Giro d'Italia

Tour De France Stage Wins: 0

The younger of the Schleck brothers has 2nd placings in Grand Tours to his name.  He also has a few white jerseys in the cupboard as the youth classification winner of both this and the Italian tour.  He will win a Tour de France - the only query is when.  In the 08 TdF Andy basically had one bad stage, failed to eat and drink properly and cost himself a massive chunk of time. Otherwise he would have probably been top 5. He has repeatedly shown over the last two years that he is probably the only GC contender who can climb with Contador. He is a classic winner last year and is at home riding on cobblestones and with crosswinds.  The experience of O'Grady, Cancellara, Voigt and his brother (all who have won stages and worn the leaders yellow jersey before) and 09 stage winner Nicki Sorrenson will mean that Andy will be given every opportunity to beat Contador, he will always be int he right place at the right time, whether he can beat him in the hills remains to be seen.  Saxo Bank have Bjarne Riis, the Best brain in cycling managing the team, he is a master tactician and gets results.  There are big rumours that the Schlecks are leaving to form their own team next year with major sponsor Saxo Bank are leaving cycling. Riis will want to win this again.  They are the best team who are so well suited to stage racing and one day classics, so look for the big plays the cobbles in stage 4.

Any might be the man most suited to go with Contador in the hills, but i don't think he can beat him.

Prediction: 2nd

Lance Armstrong

Radioshack
Major wins
1999-2005 Tour de France
2002/03 Dauphiné Libéré
2001 Tour de Suisse
1996 La Flèche Wallonne
1995 San Sebastián Classic
1993 World Champion

Tour De France Stage Wins: 22

So after the big comeback last year where he rode on the same team as Alberto Contador, Lance returns to France with his own team. He is the greatest Tour de France rider of all time, the cancer survivor, the world champion, the philantropist. I am sure he is here to win, but Lance is also here to promote cancer awareness, his bike and helmet will always be different to those of his teammates and he will stand out. He is going to get heaps of air time and he is going to promote his cause again. Can he win the Tour de France? On exposed form probably not. I thought his final time trial at the Tour of Switzerland a few weeks ago was poor. He was solid all the way through the race and went into the final stage (a time trial) as fave for overall honours.  The old Lance would have devoured that situation, but his TT was not up to his old standards (not even in the top 10) and overall he finished 2nd to Frank Schleck.  But we never saw him attack in the hills last year on the TdF, he was just hanging on, doing enough.  I think this year it might be different, this is his only goal and he has announced he will not be back next year. Lance has been on the same team as Contador and should know his strengths and weaknesses, he will be looking to exploit them anyway he can. He talks up a rivalry between him and Contador, but it is one sided - it gets his name in the media though.  The Spanish champ is humble and gracious, has self belief and is not being intimidated.  Lance has a very experienced team with old heads Kloden, Leipheimer, Horner and Popovych, add team manager Johan Bruneel (manager of 8 TdF winners) who is a master tactician and this group will go a long way to putting Lance on the podium again.
Win? I doubt it - But never write off a champion.

Prediction: 3-5

Frank Schleck
Saxo Bank
Major Wins

2006 Amstel Gold race
2009 Tour de Luxembourg

2010 Tour de Suisse

Tour de France Stages:2

In the 2008 edition Frank wore the yellow going into the big showdown on L'Alpe d'Huez. If his Team had not decided to send Sastre up L'Alpe d'Huez first he may well have come out the winner. Frank was wearing yellow at the start of the stage, Sastre attacked up the big hill first, the plan was that when the big guns caught Sastre half way up, Frank (who won up L'Alpe d'Huez in 2006) and Andy would then attack, Frank would extend his margin and ride off with the yellow jersey. Funny thing was they never caught Sastre, the rest is history. Finished 5th overall there and then 5th again last year.  Had a good year so far, won the Tour of Switzerland, 2nd in the Tour of Luxembourg, solid in the one day classics.  Such a good climber, he will be riding in support of Andy but could go top 5 again.

Prediction: 3-6

Ivan Basso
Liquigas

Major Wins
2006/10 Giro d'Italia
2002 TdF White Jersey

Tour De France Stage Wins:1

Ivan the terrible. Once the great hope of Italian cycling, the man who most tested Lance in his final years and always seen as the man most likely to take his crown when he retired.  Lance did retire, Basso was favourite for the race in 2006, but then came Operation Puerto, Basso never tested positive for anything, but he admitted he had the intention of using blood doping, it was seen as an attempt - he was withdrawn from the 2006 Tour and suspended at the end of the year. After two years on the sideline he returned, top five finishes at the Giro and the Vuelta last year before a fantastic win in this years Giro.  He and his team mates tore apart the Giro this year, his victory up the Zontalan climb was memorable, he left everyone in his wake including the top 5 at the time Evans, Sastre, Cunego, Arroyo, Vinokourov. Then they did the same on stage 19, he dismantled all the favourites on the Motirolo, climbed into Pink and never looked back.  He has a strong climbing team and the reduced time trialling is in his favour.  Last years revelation, former world Under 23 champ Roman Kreuziger returning as well as the experienced Szmyd and Bellotti. Unfortunately we wont see Vincenzo Nibali who is focusing on the Vuelta after his 3rd place at the Giro or Peter Sagan who has taken all before him this year in his first year of professional racing - he is only 20.  Back to Basso.  He has the talent and the support to be in the race for a long way when the mountains come.  This team is always focused on the Giro as their primary objective, however this year i think they might give Le Tour a red hot go.

Prediction:4-6

Cadel Evans
Team BMC

Major Wins
2009 World Champion

2006 Tour de Romandie
2010 La Flèche Wallonne
2nd place Tour de Frace 2007/08

Tour de France Stage Wins: 1


A new team, a new chapter in the Cadel Evans story.  He has a stronger team with him this year, but not by a whole lot.  Lots of experience with Hincapie, Kroon and Burghart but when things get vertical I think he might be on his lonesome again.  Cadel was in great form early season with a fantastic win in La Flèche Wallonne over Contador, he led the Giro for a while before an injury got the better of him. Cadel is always going to be there in the mountains but not taking time off the Contadors and Schlecks, he lacks their explosive acceleration. The one long  flat time trial is certainly in his favour against a few of these. He has been more attacking this season and certainly doing justice to the rainbow jersey.

Prediction:4-6

Alexander Vinokourov
Astana
Major Wins
1999 Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré
2001 Deutschland Tour
2002/03 Paris-Nice (2002, 2003)
2003 Tour de Suisse
2003 Amstel Gold Race
2006 Vuelta a España
2005/10  Liège–Bastogne–Liège

2010 Giro del Trentino


Tour de France Stage wins: 3


The enigma returns for his 6th TdF, some 7 years after finishing on the podium.  Vinokourov started Astana as his team, with his backers from Kazakhstan after he received no support from T-Mobile when he was there (i think he could have beaten Lance in 2005 but his own team mates, working for Ulrich, chased him down in breaks, he rode the race by himself and was still 5th overall.).  He then was suspended for blood doping in 2007 leaving Contador to come in to Astana and later on Armstrong.  Now he is back, winning races and although 37 years old has the experience to assist Contador and win stages.  He is a freak, he is exciting, unpredictable and does things his way.  He has said “Of course I will ride 100 percent for Alberto in the Tour de France to help him win, He said part of the reason he stayed with this team is that I can help him.It was a dream for me before, but now its over”. His assistance in the hills and in the harder flat stages will be invaluable, but give him half a chance and he will go for glory with a stage win - i bet he gets one.

Prediction: 5-10

Brad Wiggins
Sky
Major Wins
nothing of note on the road
Track
6 x World Champion.
2 x Olympic Gold Medals

Tour de France Stage wins:0


A revelation last year with 4th placing in this race. A fantastic TT rider but has shown that he can climb as well. Will get able support from Gerrans & Lokvist.    I think this years edition is stronger than last, he is not an unknown any more either.  Surprised even himself last year and with a preparation solely focused on this race, could be a big player. Look for him to be sticking in the mountains and trying to win the races against the clock.

Prediction: 5-10


Levi Leipheimer
Radioshack

Major Wins
2007/08/09 Tour of California
2006 Dauphiné Libéré
2009 Vuelta a Castilla y León
3rd 2007 Tour de France

Tour de France Stage wins:1

Leipheimer is a great all rounder, a brilliant rider against the clock, very strong with out being explosive in the mountains.  He is a stage winner in the Tour and also in the Vuelta, he has actually been on the podium in both races (2nd in the Vuelta 2008 behind Contador, 3rd in the tour of France 2007 - behind Contador).  Crashed out last year, his focus is on helping Lance, but along the way that means he will be finishing high up and he gets into the top 10 on that effort again.

Prediction: 5-10


Denis Menchov
Rabobank
Major Wins
2005/07 Vuelta a España
2009 Giro d'Italia
2004 Vuelta al País Vasco

Tour de France Stage wins:1

Came into this last year off the a great win the the Giro, that went nicely with his 2 wins in the tour of Spain. He is a 3 time Grand Tour winner who has finished 3rd here in 2008. He can climb, he can time trial. But he is getting old and his results this year have not been fantastic.  Also not in his favour is that Rabobank have the great dutch hope Robert Gesink riding. He has a huge reputation and if he is ahead of Menchov, Denis might find himself riding in support.  Solid squad though, at his best Top 5 but this is a strong field.

Prediction: 5-10

Roman Kreuziger
Liquigas
Major wins
2004 Junior World Champion
2008 Tour de Suisse
2009 Tour de Romandie

Tour de France Stage wins:0

This youngster was 2nd and 3rd in the White jersey the last two years behind Andy Schleck. He has had good results to start this year, won the Giro di Sardegna and 3rd in Paris-Nice. He and Basso will be a formidable team in the Mountains and Kreuziger is a very good time trial rider. He did not ride the Giro like Basso and with fresh legs i think he will make his presence known, top 10 again for this rising star.

Prediction: 7-10

Michael Rogers
Columbia - Highroad
Major Wins
2004/05/06 World Time Trial Champion
2003 Tour of Germany
2002 Tour Down Under

2010 Tour of California
2010 Vuelta a Andalucia

Tour de France Stage wins:0

The forgotten man of Australian Cycling, a 3 time world champ who is an elite rider. 3 years ago he was the virtual leader on the road during stage 8 (ie. if they had of stopped the race then and there he would have been wearing yellow) but a crash and a broken collar bone ended that. Last year he missed because of illness. He was 9th in 2006 as team leader for T-Mobile. Last year rode as a domestique.  This year he finds himself with a support crew that whilst solid, will be more focused on wining Cavendish green. Tony Martin is the best of them as an assistant, Adam Hansen and Maxime Monfort can be called upon but ultimately he is going to be alone when the attacks come high up in the Pyrenees.Still, i think he can possibly return to the Top 10.

Prediction: 8-12

Carlos Sastre.
Cervelo test team
Major Wins
2008 Tour de France


Tour de France Stage wins: 3

The 2008  winner, a man who has always been consistent in the mountains (has won mountain stages on all 3 grand tours) but a good time trialler and does not have a great team like he used to. Was injured in the Giro and i think father time is catching up with Carlos.  Will be isolated in the hills but can fight. Possible top 10.

Prediction: 8-12



Samuel Sanchez 
Euskaltel - Euskadi
Major Wins
2008 Olympic Road Race
3rd 2007 Vuelta d Espana

Tour de France Stage wins:0

He was 6th in the 2008 tour then missed last year. Has placed in the Vuelta, multiple placings in spring classics, Olympic Gold. An all rounder who is a very good climber, on his day can almost stay with the best of them, problem is consistency and he wont be able to sneak away to gain time like he has in the past, he will be marked. He is the best descender in the world though, so on the stages with the long descents look for him to be making up time there.  He has support from up and comer Igor Anton who has been in great form, might just be that the team looks to the future though and gives support to Anton.   The men from Euskaltel - Euskadi dont do flat stages, all 9 will be there for climbing, break aways and when they are in the pyrenees it will be action stations as the team hils from the Basque region. Much stronger field this year but if he continues good results can figure in top 10 again.

Prediction: 8-14


Robert Gesink
Rabobank
Major Wins
nothing of note.

Tour de France Stage wins:0

Gesink has a mountain of ability.  DNF last year in his first attempt but this year will be riding with the hole orange army behind him.  The great white hope of dutch cycling he is a fantastic climber and a solid TT rider.  It remains to be seen if he can go with the big guns.  If he is out of contention look for a stage win and riding in support of Menchov, but if he is going well as the hype would have us believe he can, then he could figure in the top 10.

Prediction: 10-14


Damiano Cunego
Lampre
Major Wins
2004 Giro d'Italia
2004/07/08 Giro d'Lombardia
2008 Amstel Gold Race
2006 Tour de France White Jersey

Tour de France Stage wins:0

At 22 he won the Giro, he was White Jersey winner at Le Tour in 2006. Last year he crashed when ranked 14th and had to abandon. At this years Giro he just was not good enough. He seems to be a one day specialist now who is thereabouts on the big tours and hunting for stage wins.

Prediction: 12-16

Christian Vandevelde.
Garmin - Slipstream
Major Wins
2006 Tour de Luxembourg

Tour de France Stage wins:0

I think he slipped under a lot of peoples guards when he finished 4th in 2008 on the back of some good climbing efforts and a solid TT. Big fall last year in the Giro but bounced back with 8th overall in support of Wiggins.  Should be team leader here, has a reduced amount of TT where he excels but could sneak into the top 10 here as he is a consistent all round performer.

Prediction: 10-14

Andreas Kloden
Radioshack
Major Wins
2000 Paris - Nice
2000 Vuelta al País Vasco
2008 Tirrenno-Adriatico
2nd overall 2004/06 Tour de France

Tour de France Stage wins:1

A very strong all rounder who has twice stood on the podium, Kloden will find himself working hard, chasing down attacks and looking after his team mates and getting into break aways to try and nullify them. Just being there will result in a high finishing position, should go top 10 again.

Prediction: 8-12

Luis Leon Sanchez
Caisse D'Epagne
Major Wins
2005  Tour Down Under
2007 Vuelta a Mallorca
2009 Paris-Nice
2009 Tour Méditerranéen
2010 Circuit de la Sarthe2008/10 Spanish Time Trial Champion

Tour de France Stage wins:2

With Valverde not riding, Sanchez will be team leader. Great all rounder, but when the hills get steep its a bit much for Luis Leon.  Has a great team of climbers to help him, he can time trial and so will be in contention.  I think Top 10 is realistic but will drop time on the big guns in the Pyrenees.

Prediction: 8-14


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The Summary

I am fairly confident Contador will win baring misfortune and that A. Schleck will be 2nd overall.
Armstrong should be 3rd or 4th with his own team this year, F. Schleck can improve on 5th last year.
After that it is very very competitive. Lots of very good bike riders.

We care in for a cracking race.