With five climbs and some of the steepest stretches in the entire Tour, this stage is set to be an epic. Almost the entire stage is either up or down. Even the flat parts aren’t really flat! Every mountain the riders climb is going to be feeling tougher than the last, this is probably the hardest stage of them all. 169.5 km with four category one climbs and a category two in the middle.
The Climbs
Km 18.0 - Cormet de Roselend - 18.1 km climb at an average of 5.7 % - Category 1
This stunning climb is the highest point of the stage at almost 2000 metres. While never too steep, it’s long and a tough start to the day. The descent does not look that technical, although as we saw yesterday with Jens Voight, its not always the turns that get you. I hope he is alright and that Paul Scherwen and Phil Ligget are not to sad that their love child has exited the race. This descent has one famous casualty though, in the hairpins below Cret Bettex, Johan Bruyneel (the Astana team boss & director for lance and Contador for all their tour wins) crashed over a ledge in the ‘96 Tour - look for the “Johan” written in yellow on the safety wall. Race footage of the crash is here.
Km 56.0 - Col des Saisies - 15.1 km climb at an average 6 % - Category 1
The riders hit the bottom of the first climb and then it is stright back up the Col de Saisies. Another fifteen kilometers of ascending, the six percent average gradient masks the fact that although there is a slight descent halfway up, there is also another section that touches 11%.
The riders descend down to Flumet and enter the easiest section of this stage. The town of Praz-sur-Arly hosts the intermediate sprint (but it will not be contested by sprinters!) before some more descending and a little further down the road lunch is served. Expect the peleton to slow here and grab their breath and any breakaways to try and put the hammer down to extend their lead.
Km 111.5 - Côte d'Araches - 6.3 km climb to 7 % - Category 2
Only 6.3km uphill at an average gradient of seven percent makes this the easiest climb of the day.
Km 140.5 - Col de Romme - 8.8 km climb to 8.9 % - Category 1
The climb to Romme is the steepest of the stage at nearly nine percent average gradient, with sections above 10%. This is where i imagine the attacks will really start in the GC. Astana and Saxo bank will be looking to drop as many hangers on as possible to try and make it a select group to see if they can isolate riders or drop them off the back. Quite a short descent follows, a five km downhill and straight up the Col de la Colombière.
Km 154.5 - Col de la Colombière - 7.5 km climb to 8.5 % - Category 1
This climb might be very even, but it's hard at nine percent incline all the way to the summit, all on a nearly straight road. The last 3 kms are along side a cliff, very steep, and almost always into a strong wind. This will be the 19th time the Tour has been over the Col de la Colombière - but the 1st time via Col de Romme ensuring that it is all the harder this year. After the previous 4 climbs the peleton is going to be pretty thin and fairly select, expect the Astana / Saxo Bank rivalry to continue with a few riders each including their big guns, Wiggins and Vande Velde from Garmin, Nibaldi and maybe pelizotti from Liquigas and really anyone else who might be able to hang on. If anyone is going to take time off Contador and has dreams of winning this would be the time to launch an all out assault. no point waiting for the ventoux on Saturday.
Down the other side they go, then with two kilometers to go the descent ends when the riders cross the bridge of the river Borne where the surface suddenly becomes flat for a change. If the sprint is decided by the GC-riders remains to be seen, the ITT is tomorrow so they might not want to dig too deep. a breakaway would have to be pretty strong to get away on this stage, with all the climbing the big guns are really going to come to the fore.
One thing is certain, the winner today will be able to climb.
Betting
Alberto Contador $5.00
Im thinking attack is the best form of defence. If Andy and Frank Schleck try and crack him on the Colombiere he might just decide ( like he did on the climb to verbier in stage 15) that it is not worth hanging around for their fun and games and say "adios" to them.
This should be spectacular, certainly one of the best stages to watch of the tour so far.
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