The stage is dedicated to Salvador Dali, who called the Perpignan railway station the “cosmogonic centre of the universe”. The icon of surrealism, who was touched by a form of fascination for the spectacle of cycling, created the 1959 Tour’s postcard. If his influence inspires the pack in the Corbières or along the seaside, anything will be possible!
Another flat stage that has a slight rise in the middle, 2 cat 4 climbs that are really not going to trouble anyone. Intermediate sprints after 40km in Capestang, 107km at SaintJean de Barrou and then at 158km at Canet-En-Roussillon. The looks like the last stage for the sprinters before the Pyrenees, so it should be keenly contested and we might actually see the big guns having a go at he intermediates, unless of course the usual French led breakaway comes. Doubtless though they will get caught. The wind however is the factor. The same Mediterranean breeze that caused the split in stage 3 and gained Lance that valuable time will be present again. About 40 of the last 60km is along coastline , so with tired legs from the TTT yesterday teams are going to have to watch for breaks, might be time for a strong rider to have have a go and chance his luck a few kilometers out. Either way with the prospect of bigger climbs ahead we are looking at a bunch sprint again, we have not seen big long lead out trains over the last 500m, Columbia have blown them away! Lets just hope it provides the same sort of excitement as stage 3!
Betting
Win
Bunch Sprint = Mark Cavendish.
$1.75 to win with Betfair. Tick - might as well take that one.
$1.37 to finish top 3 with Betfair. Take that as well.
Top 3 finish.
Im sticking with Ciolek here, i reckon Milram just got muscled out the other day in stage 2, i think that they will want to improve and can deliver this guy to a few top 3 finishes - $6.00 to place.
Betfair are also running a market - winner without Cavendish.
Back Hushovd @ $4.00
**EDIT 4.00pm - Hushovd to finish first 3 - $2.56 is better value.
take that instead.
So the logic is that the Cavendish bets allow us to Collect $17.50 + $13.70 = $31.20 - an $11.20 profit. Then seeing as there is no quinella or exacta betting we look at at least one of Hushovd to or Ciolek to place to get a nice collect.
hmm
ReplyDelete$40 out
$13.70 in
loss of $26.30 on that stage.
Pity about the bunch not catching them as Cavendish led the bunch ($17.50 + $13.70) and Ciolek was 3rd behind Cav ($60.00) would have put the betting right back on track.
Bloody Frenchmen!