2009 Tour de France - Stage 7

Stage 7 - Barcelone Andorre Arcalis 224 km

Here we go.

Time trials aside, this is the first 'big' stage of the 2009 Tour de France.

Real Mountains.

Real Climbing!

Real Pain!

Mountain passes & Hills
Km 32.0 - Côte de Montserrat - 4.1 km climb to 3.8 % - Category 4
Km 97.0 - Port de Solsona - 5.8 km climb to 4.3 % - Category 3
Km 127.0 - Col de Serra-Seca - 7.7 km climb to 7.1 % - Category 1
Km 136.5 - Port del Comte - 3.1 km climb to 5.3 % - Category 3
Km 224.0 - ANDORRE ARCALIS - 10.6 km climb to 7.1 % - Category H

A cat 1 climb of 7.7km and a finish on a Hors Cat of 10.6km!

A summit finish is a special thing, there are only ever a few every year (others this year are stages 15 & 20) and the importance can not be understated. Things change on summit finishes. Time loses can be huge. The Yellow jersey inevitably changes hands. Last year the first mountain finish put Cadel Evans in Yellow after he finished 2 minutes behind a few Saunier - Duval team mates who were later found to be jacked up on drugs (although it was pretty impressive watching Riccardo Ricco climb!). The year before Michael Rassmussen took control of the race on the first summit finish with a big win, he wore yellow until the team booted him for suspect doping practices. In the 2006 edition the first summit finish was where Denis Menchov out sprinted Leipheimer, Landis, Evans and Sastre to claim the win. Landis got his hands on the Yellow. Damn i better stop there. It sounds bad for cycling.

I'm not saying a yet to be discovered drug cheat will win the stage or inherit the yellow jersey.

However what i am trying to say is that summit finishes bring change. Huge time can be gained, or lost. With the overall classification still so tight - usually the first mountain stage is not a summit finish - the big names will fight out the finish here, or at least be within sight of the winner. Astana with 4 of the top 5 in the GC are not going to lay down here, is Contador vs Lance, do they keep their powder dry and wait until later, just mark each other, or does the war start here. Lance is too smart and has done this so many times, whatever he does it will be calculated. The old Lance would have won this stage, but the old Lance never had to beat his own team mates.

CSC hold the yellow and will look to defend as long as possible - they will ramp the pace and get rid of a most of the peleton, they want one of the Schlecks to ride off. Then there is everyone else vying for the prize. Christaian Vandevelde is best placed but will not be able to take time off Contador on a climb. My big tip for the tour was Roman Kreuziger, the young of Liquigas. Yet to prove himself with the big guns, he will be keen for the test, he sits 1:31 behind Cancellara /Armstong. I would love to see him go on the offensive here. His team mate Vincenzo Nibali is at 1:36, he can climb as well and these two look like they could create a headache for Astana - if they want. Andy Schleck is at 1:41 - i believe he is probably the best pure climber in the tour, he is only of the only ones here who might be able to out climb Contador. I say that viewing Armstrongs climbing ability on what he has shown in his comeback, not his old form. Schleck has a strong team, he might bide his time, however he is not going to be taking time off Contador/Armstong in time trials so his options are limited. He has his brother at 2:17 behind, they can form a big one-two punch after their super strong support team has softened a number of the other climbers up on the cat 1.

Then there are a few who simply can not afford to lose any time. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, Denis Menchov, Kim Kirchen. They can all climb, they all are a few minutes in arrears. They have nothing to lose and must not lose any time - staying with the leaders is the minimum - attacking is their only hope at getting back into this race.

For me though this stage is going to tell us if Lance Armstrong can win the tour for an eighth time. He has a little bit of time on Contador. If he can still climb like he used to, then Contador has got his work cut out, if Contador rides off him tonight and takes the Yellow, then it might be all over for Lance.

The last kilometer looks menacing.

Betting.

Contador to win. $3.90 on betfair - taken.

If he does not win, its worth paying for as it means the tour is only going to get better!

Andy Schleck e.w is the other option at $8 / $2.60.

might take that as well.