They dont call this 'the race of truth' for nothing.
Yesterdays epic stage put the brothers Schleck into second and third overall, but the Time Trial around Lake Annecy will see if they can keep their spots ahead of Saturdays rendezvous with Mount Ventoux. This is the first time in tour history that a mountain stage has followed the final time trial, for the past 15 years the penultimate stage has been an individual time trial.
This is different (and good), the short relatively flat course means that losses will be limited compared to the longer TT that is usually in the last week that can also feature more hills.
The Saxo Bank boys are really up against it here, Contador is ahead of them and they have Armstrong, Kloden, Wiggins, Nibali & Vande Velde behind them - all who can time trial very very well. its not that the brothers can't time trial, only that the others are better at it.
Contador - 2nd in the opening Time Trial to Cancellara, has won multiple TT races since that famous TT against in 2007 when he was 5th. Spanish TT champ and he goes at it pretty well. Does not get his favoured hilly course here but wont be losing much time to anyone.
Armstrong - A Freak TT rider. Has won 8 TT stages in Tour de France races (2 prologues). He will be primed! Everyone should remember when Armstrong passed Ullrich in 2005. Can not be underestimated and he wants to be on that podium. Will be flying.
Wiggins - We've been put on notice during this Tour de France as to the enormous potential in Bradley Wiggins. He dropped 7 or 8kgs after the olympics and is climbing really well. He has three Olympic gold medals - in the individual and team pursuit from Athens and Beijing - we know he is good against he clock, once upon a time it was his 'thing'. Whether he has lost some of his power with his weight loss remains to be seen, we shall find out!
Andreas Kloden - great TT rider although it will be interesting to see what yesterday took out of him or if he is leaving anything for Ventoux. Astana have the chance for clean sweep of the podium so i think he will go hard. He is a winner of multiple TT stages in other races and a proven performer in the last week of the tour, should be in the top 5 or 6.
Roman Kreuziger is a really good TT rider, will be interesting to see what his young legs have left, he might be able to push for a top 5 spot in this stage, his team mate Nibali needs a good TT to keep himself in contention.
And then there is poor old Cadel. Team Politics yada yada yada. There is always a whinge with the guy, always an excuse, he is constantly on the defensive. Yep i dont like him and neither does all of Europe. He was so bad yesterday and the day prior that it is possible he has been holding back so he can unleash here. possible.
but not likely.
but my prediction?
Fabian Cancellara - no one does the TT better than the big man.
no value though at $1.87!
Betting.
we are cashed up, or more to the point, pretty confident that when Pellizotti wins KOM we will be (laid off at $1.03 to guarantee the profit on the $24 bet.) so.......
2 bets, both to finish top 3.
$4.20 Lance Armstong
$19.00 Cadel Evans.
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