Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Tour de France 2009 - Stage 4 (TTT)

stage 4 - Montpellier Montpellier 39 km





The team time-trial (TTT) is making a comeback in the Tour de France after a 3 year absence, but with one major change: the time recorded on the line will be taken into account without tables. Previously there was a maximum amount of time a team could lose. Real time is still the absolute rule at the 2009 Tour. That is also why the route in Montpellier is short, the last 2 TTTs were almost 70km in length, this is just 39km.

results from the TTT at the 2009 Giro - 20.5km
1st - Columbia 21.50
2nd - Garmin + 0.06
3rd - Astana +0.13

at the 2008 Giro it was Garmin (called slipstream at the time) beating CSC and Columbia by 6 seconds.

The only other TTT on a stage race of any note this year was the Tour de Romandie (in Switzerland) but it is no team rode that race with the same or even a similar TdF roster.

Tour de Romandie
1 Team Columbia-High Road 18' 37"
2 Caisse d'Epargne + 10"
3 Team Saxo Bank + 16"

I would think that Columbia, Garmin, Astana and Saxo-Bank are the big guns here.
Riders like Cadel Evans face the prospect of losing time to other big name GC contenders tonight, it is a real test of team strength. The time is for the first 5 riders across the line. Garmin have a very very good TT outfit, Millar, Vande Velde & Zabriskie area all super TT riders. We know Astana has Lance, Levi & Contador, Columbia goes very well too though and saxo bank have a unit of good all rounders as well as big Fabian, the best TT rider in the business.

The combined times of the fist 5 riders from the ITT in stage 1 was thus:
1 Astana 00:59:46
2 Team Saxo Bank +00:31
3 Garmin - Slipstream +00:44
4 Liquigas +01:25
5 Colombia +01:46

The betting reflects that.
$1.77 Astana
$5.10 Garmin- Slipstream
$7.80 Columbia - HTC
$9.10 Saxo-Bank

Every other team is greater than $100 on betfair!

We are going for the upset here, i think this stage is the sole focus of the 2009 Tour for Garmin - we will back them to win.

but some insurance:

Rider in Yellow at end of Stage 4.
Fabian Cancellara $1.50
Lance Armstrong $3.20
Tony Martin $6.60

If Astana get enough time off Saxo Bank (40 seconds) and they beat Columbia (by 7 seconds), then Lance will be in Yellow at the end of this!
$3.20 for that - yep, take it as well, much better than the price for Astana winning.

Stage 4 Betting
Garmin to win $5.20
Lance in Yellow $3.20

3 comments:

  1. Great work by Lance last night.

    If he is wearing Yellow after tonight's stage, the "Tiger" and "Roger" factor will come right into play.

    Mr Invincible?

    Intriguing stuff.

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  2. Steve,

    Twas great to watch (I actually watched it) but I think that Astana cost themselves & Lance the yellow jersey. Most of the GUN teams when they got inside the final km were picked up and dragged over the line by the leader, Cavendish & Cancerella was superb in driving Saxo.

    Lance relinquished the front to Contador who also relinquished the front? and they go down by milli seconds... For me this is a sign of weakness in the team, they don't truly know who the leader is/should be...

    Cadel is GOOOOOOOOOONE! terible performance by Silence Lotto.

    Matt how unlucky with Garmin what a courageous effort to do what they did with the bare 5 for most the journey.

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